2.20 Doncaster Coral Hcp 5f
Dandy Nicholls runs three here and he hasn't won this sprint race previously.
Parisian Pyramid is one of 10 runners in this that contested the York race.
That race has produced 3 previous winners of todays race.
Those 3 winners were all 3yo's (like PP)
All had either won or finished 2nd in their previous 6 races.(PP finished 2nd in one of the last six races)
All were in the weight range 8-7 to 8-12 and PP carries 8-8 today.
Joe Fanning got the feel for Parisian Pyramid when behind Cheveton but Adrian Nicholls was on Strike Up The Band who finished ahead of him in 4th.
Adrian rides the stable select today in Cape Vale who is quite consistent.(7-16 prev winners were consistent with at least 2 wins and and placed runs. Five of the 7 ran within 9 days like Cape Vale)
Judge n Jury attempts back to back wins in this.
Inherent Magic did it in 2003-4. and was 4yo & 5yo same as JnJ.
C&D winners have won 7 of the previous 16 runnings.
Top weights have won it twice (JnJ top wght last year)
JnJ is drawn 15 today and was drawn 16 last year. (same number of runners prior to withdrawals)
At least two previous winners failed in back to back runs
This race stats (16 yrs)
Normally a full season runner wins (15-16)
Ran in last 5 weeks (all)
Won or finished 2nd in last six races (12-16)
Of the 4 that did not win or finish 2nd, 3 were C&D winners.
C&D winners (7-16) especially older runners 5yo plus.
REVIEW
Not a race to get too involved with
Parisian Pyramid finished 5th
Saturday, 24 October 2009
Friday, 23 October 2009
DONCASTER OCTOBER
RACING POST TROPHY 8f Group 1 for 2yo's
Key Factors.
Won on first or second run (25-27 two exceptions who were placed on only run)
If ran in Listed Race then won it.(8-8)
If ran Mids North or Scotland then won, or placed in Group race (8won 2grp placed)
No previous winner in last 27 years was out of frame more than once.
Only six meet the "out of the frame category" and three were on first run and three were in Group race.
Crowded House (2008) was only winner to run in a sales event (544K) or on AW track (won).
This year sees more dual win runners (form 11)than previous years.
No race in last 27 years has seen more than two runners with similar form.
A total of nine runners have come to Doncaster with 11 form figures and only two have won. (Peter Davies and Celtic Swing)
The interesting fact is that those two winners won 7f listed or B condition races following their maiden wins over same distance.
This years runners with 11 form
Al Zir (7f wins at Nmkt mdn and Donc B conds)
Elusive Award (7f wins at Leop mdn and Dundalk conds)
Elusive Pimpernel (7f wins at Nmkt mdn and York group3)
St Nicholas Abbey (8f wins at Curragh mdn & group2)
St Nicholas is the favourite and clearly has a chance with the group 2 win.
Same trainer has run
Brian Boru achieved his win with lesser qualifications- Group 3 8f
2nd and 7f maiden win both at Curragh.
Septimus Group 2 8f win Curragh and 7f mdn win only finished 3rd 5/6fav 2005
Castle Gandolfo 8/13fav who won 8f Gr 3 at Curragh after 6f mdn also failed in 2001.
Lermontov 2nd in 1999 also won Curragh 8f gr3 after 7f mdn.
Of the other runners
Al Ghazal - interesting as won over 10f and will surely stay. Cannot find a runner that ran over 10f (back to 1990) and certainly no winners in last 27 yrs ran at that dist.
Big Audio - failed to win on first two runs and with two listed wins - is probably his class.
Coordinated Cat - Single CD win but at least 5 CD winners have failed and only 1 course win in last 27 yrs.
Dancing David - Two previous winners came here after Newbury win but those were in B conds races and David won a mdn there.
Hanson D - The Flintshire MP is unlikely to win based on the failure to win a northern mdn.
Morana - Definitely on the short list despite failing to win in first two runs. The drop from 8f to 7f for second run (very unusual) may have gone against him but to win a Group 3 as his maiden makes him interesting.
Mussaafer - The AW run when 2nd is against this one.
Shakespearean - Probably the form horse in the race. Won sales race worth 956k which is much more than the prize money for this Group 1 race!!!
If it wasn't for his failure in listed event on second run he would figure as a bet.
Finally
Difficult to pinpoint the winner and may consider St Nicholas to be a lay bet on the record of O'Briens previous dual win runners Septimus,Castle Gandolfo and Lermontov.
Al Zir with two wins over 7f and a course win and Elusive Pimpernel make most appeal. Both had their first run at Nmkt, a course which figures highly in the stats.
REVIEW
St Nicholas won it easy and despite the two selections finishing 2nd & 3rd the race was a loss for me.
Key Factors.
Won on first or second run (25-27 two exceptions who were placed on only run)
If ran in Listed Race then won it.(8-8)
If ran Mids North or Scotland then won, or placed in Group race (8won 2grp placed)
No previous winner in last 27 years was out of frame more than once.
Only six meet the "out of the frame category" and three were on first run and three were in Group race.
Crowded House (2008) was only winner to run in a sales event (544K) or on AW track (won).
This year sees more dual win runners (form 11)than previous years.
No race in last 27 years has seen more than two runners with similar form.
A total of nine runners have come to Doncaster with 11 form figures and only two have won. (Peter Davies and Celtic Swing)
The interesting fact is that those two winners won 7f listed or B condition races following their maiden wins over same distance.
This years runners with 11 form
Al Zir (7f wins at Nmkt mdn and Donc B conds)
Elusive Award (7f wins at Leop mdn and Dundalk conds)
Elusive Pimpernel (7f wins at Nmkt mdn and York group3)
St Nicholas Abbey (8f wins at Curragh mdn & group2)
St Nicholas is the favourite and clearly has a chance with the group 2 win.
Same trainer has run
Brian Boru achieved his win with lesser qualifications- Group 3 8f
2nd and 7f maiden win both at Curragh.
Septimus Group 2 8f win Curragh and 7f mdn win only finished 3rd 5/6fav 2005
Castle Gandolfo 8/13fav who won 8f Gr 3 at Curragh after 6f mdn also failed in 2001.
Lermontov 2nd in 1999 also won Curragh 8f gr3 after 7f mdn.
Of the other runners
Al Ghazal - interesting as won over 10f and will surely stay. Cannot find a runner that ran over 10f (back to 1990) and certainly no winners in last 27 yrs ran at that dist.
Big Audio - failed to win on first two runs and with two listed wins - is probably his class.
Coordinated Cat - Single CD win but at least 5 CD winners have failed and only 1 course win in last 27 yrs.
Dancing David - Two previous winners came here after Newbury win but those were in B conds races and David won a mdn there.
Hanson D - The Flintshire MP is unlikely to win based on the failure to win a northern mdn.
Morana - Definitely on the short list despite failing to win in first two runs. The drop from 8f to 7f for second run (very unusual) may have gone against him but to win a Group 3 as his maiden makes him interesting.
Mussaafer - The AW run when 2nd is against this one.
Shakespearean - Probably the form horse in the race. Won sales race worth 956k which is much more than the prize money for this Group 1 race!!!
If it wasn't for his failure in listed event on second run he would figure as a bet.
Finally
Difficult to pinpoint the winner and may consider St Nicholas to be a lay bet on the record of O'Briens previous dual win runners Septimus,Castle Gandolfo and Lermontov.
Al Zir with two wins over 7f and a course win and Elusive Pimpernel make most appeal. Both had their first run at Nmkt, a course which figures highly in the stats.
REVIEW
St Nicholas won it easy and despite the two selections finishing 2nd & 3rd the race was a loss for me.
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