3.15 CHESTER 5f Hcp Weds
The draw plays an important part in this race.
If the draw is Good or softer then the highest winning draw was 7.
The qualifiers in todays race which now has 12 runners due to 3 withdrawals.
Good Gorson is eliminated as 4yo’s have a poor record in this race. (unless CD winner and/or won current season)
Horse Age Weight Dist Days LTO Track grade Spd SH SH
Strike
up the Band6 Top D 28 4 Nott C 1 F -
Sohraab 5 High D 19 2 Newb B 3 SF SF
Carcinetto7 High D 8 0 South Claim 4 - -
Angus Newz6 Bottom D C 9 6 Bath A 5 - -
Northern Dare5 Bottom D 8 4 Wolv D - -
Top weights have won 5 previous runnings
Bottom weights 4
High 3
Bath run last time has produced 2 wins
Newb 4
Nott 1
The main selection is Sohraab based upon factors;
Only winner that ran 2nd on previous outing was in same race.
That race has produced 4 winners.
The stable info today has produced the results 2nd W W 0 2nd
Fonthill Road was just btn by Nicholls runner in photo.
Janannpee was beaten a length by the favourite.
Also noting Sohraab’s form it is noticed that no wins on Good or softer going.
Todays going is described as Good with Good to Firm in places.
It would be wise to back savers accordingly from the list as Fire Up the Band (16/1)
Who beat Fonthill Road was also in the list the only previous time this has been
Researched. David Nicholls has 3 runners today (as usual) and two are in the list.
4.00 Stats show that top weights that won last time out do not win this (Kings Destiny).
Distance winners that have won two career races do. Fortuni would have also fitted but has
Been withdrawn but trainer Prescott still has Braveheart in the race. The only winner that hadn’t
Run in current season was Swiss Act in 2007.
HEADLINE ACT is selected
4.35.
Stats show that 7 or 8 fur runs last time out win two thirds of the past races as opposed to 10f which won the remainder.
Also there hasn't been a reversal of form so Harbinger should beat Beauchamp Xerxes again (8f race)
and likewise Calypso Bay should beat Devotion to Duty (10f race).
The previous winners have all either been Nmkt or Manton trained.
Stoute has won this with a runner that finished 3rd in the race that Harbinger was 2nd.
As Harbinger is aimed at Dante - Derby then this should be his race and the forecast maybe a possibility.
Wednesday, 6 May 2009
Tuesday, 5 May 2009
CHESTER LILY AGNES
Generally this race is often won by a single run winner (14-31)
Two occasions a double winner has won resulting in 16-31 going unbeaten to post.
Taking the unbeaten winners out of the scenario we are left with 12 winners who had won a race (including 4 who won two races) and only two of those ran unplaced in a race - both on first run.The four winners that bucked the trends were
What Fun - 3rd on only outing (This was a weaker race with 4 unraced of the 7 runners.
Digital Image - first time out
Cracking - unplaced first run and won (The year Vhujon was withdrawn)
Doncaster Rover -2nd on only run. (all the other 6 runners were fillies)
Richard Hannon has won this race on 6 occasions from 10 attempts.
The Berry stable (Jack and now Alan) have won 6 races also.
The Brocklesby runners
1985 Runaway WON.
2001 Shifting Kid 2nd (photo)and Magic Trick 3rd.
2002 The Lord WON
2003 Dance Night WON and Mitchelland 4th
2008 Doncaster Rover WON
The DRAW. (winners draw on varying going)
Soft 1 1 1 1
G/Soft 2 1 1 1 1
Good 3 2 1 2 2 2 1 2
G/Firm 1 5 8 3 6 1 3 5 5 8 3 5 2
Firm no races.
This years runners and previous stats back to 1977
Star Rover
Trainer David Evans has had eight attempts at this race and has a 2nd place to show for his efforts. In 2007 his runner Vhujon was withdrawn on day of the race when favourite and probable winner.
Star Rover has won all three of his races.
No previous runner since 1977 has won three races prior to this race so we are in unknown territory this year.
The most wins prior to this race is two and a total of twelve runners have come into eight previous Lily Agnes races (duplicates on four occasions)resulting in 3 wins.
Unbeaten two win runners amount to four and only one won.
Top weights who carried over 9stone won three of the eight qualfying races.
David Evans ran two in the race last year, both unbeaten and the one who had won its both races and was top weight with 8-13 started at 4/5 fav and finished 4th.
The questions against are the weight and the draw (5) and trainer record
The positive - unbeaten
Archers Road
Mick Channon hasn't had a runner since 2002. His three runners who contested this all appeared to have live chances. 1998 Golden Silca (form 1) backed from 3/1 into 9/4 second favourite and finished 2nd.She went onto win four races including two Group 2 races that year. 1999 Barringer (form 2121) 5/4 fav unplaced.
2002 Polar Force (form 1) 5/1 out to 6/1 unplaced.
His runner this year contested the Brocklesby finishing 2nd.
Questions. Newcastle and Leicester where the wins occurred do not feature in past winners. The draw (7)
Positives. Runners who had always finished in first two in their previous three or more races have won 2 from 7 qualifiers.
The Brocklesby record in this.
Duke of Rainford
One run last of 12 at Nottingham.
Appears to be the trainers first runner in this race.
Question. Everything including the draw (8)
Positive. Dwelt and hampered and backed from 10/1 to 11/2 on only run.
Fratellino
Over 4 lengths behind Archers Road at Ascot last time.
Questions. Upped in class from last when RPost said needed a drop in class.
Positives. Led last time and could possibly lead the race if gets a good start from 4
Goodbye Earl.
100-1 in only race hampered and gradually weakened in only race
Question. Everything except the draw.Appears held by My Mandy.
Positives. The draw and stable record in race.
Kings of Leo
This filly came out at Windsor (3/1 fav) and faded after chasing leader.
She won at Warwick on BH Monday.
Questions. The quick outing of only two days.The draw.
Positives. Trainer record in this race. Three of his winners had their first run at Windsor.
Mijas Playa.
Good run when 2nd in a decent race at Nmkt.Tricky Note (1987) came from same race.
Appears to have a couple of pounds in hand over Kings of Leo through a line with Six Wives and more on a line with Azif. Trainer won this 1996.
Questions. Runners who were 2nd on only run have produced 1 win and 3 seconds from 8 qualifiers. The fillies ratio is one second and three unplaced - including Kilcora 1997 who also ran her race at Nmkt.
Positives. Daryll Holland rides her again. Alan Bailey who trained winner that beat Mijas loves Chester and intimated that the winner would run in this race. The draw
(3) based on weakness of lower drawn runners.
My Mandy
Three runs without a win and Pattersea Girl overturned form of first run when they met. Raced alone when decent 2nd at Haydock. If she does that here, from stall 9, she will cover a furlong more.
Questions. No previous winner has had two or three placed runs.The draw.
Positives. Will be company in horse box for Duke of Rainford.
Tom Folan
I have lost count of the number of times this one has been withdrawn from races recently. At least two I can recall. Appears held by Fratellino and Mick Channon should know where he stands through form lines.
Questions. Whether it will run or be withdrawn.
Positive. Good draw.
Two occasions a double winner has won resulting in 16-31 going unbeaten to post.
Taking the unbeaten winners out of the scenario we are left with 12 winners who had won a race (including 4 who won two races) and only two of those ran unplaced in a race - both on first run.The four winners that bucked the trends were
What Fun - 3rd on only outing (This was a weaker race with 4 unraced of the 7 runners.
Digital Image - first time out
Cracking - unplaced first run and won (The year Vhujon was withdrawn)
Doncaster Rover -2nd on only run. (all the other 6 runners were fillies)
Richard Hannon has won this race on 6 occasions from 10 attempts.
The Berry stable (Jack and now Alan) have won 6 races also.
The Brocklesby runners
1985 Runaway WON.
2001 Shifting Kid 2nd (photo)and Magic Trick 3rd.
2002 The Lord WON
2003 Dance Night WON and Mitchelland 4th
2008 Doncaster Rover WON
The DRAW. (winners draw on varying going)
Soft 1 1 1 1
G/Soft 2 1 1 1 1
Good 3 2 1 2 2 2 1 2
G/Firm 1 5 8 3 6 1 3 5 5 8 3 5 2
Firm no races.
This years runners and previous stats back to 1977
Star Rover
Trainer David Evans has had eight attempts at this race and has a 2nd place to show for his efforts. In 2007 his runner Vhujon was withdrawn on day of the race when favourite and probable winner.
Star Rover has won all three of his races.
No previous runner since 1977 has won three races prior to this race so we are in unknown territory this year.
The most wins prior to this race is two and a total of twelve runners have come into eight previous Lily Agnes races (duplicates on four occasions)resulting in 3 wins.
Unbeaten two win runners amount to four and only one won.
Top weights who carried over 9stone won three of the eight qualfying races.
David Evans ran two in the race last year, both unbeaten and the one who had won its both races and was top weight with 8-13 started at 4/5 fav and finished 4th.
The questions against are the weight and the draw (5) and trainer record
The positive - unbeaten
Archers Road
Mick Channon hasn't had a runner since 2002. His three runners who contested this all appeared to have live chances. 1998 Golden Silca (form 1) backed from 3/1 into 9/4 second favourite and finished 2nd.She went onto win four races including two Group 2 races that year. 1999 Barringer (form 2121) 5/4 fav unplaced.
2002 Polar Force (form 1) 5/1 out to 6/1 unplaced.
His runner this year contested the Brocklesby finishing 2nd.
Questions. Newcastle and Leicester where the wins occurred do not feature in past winners. The draw (7)
Positives. Runners who had always finished in first two in their previous three or more races have won 2 from 7 qualifiers.
The Brocklesby record in this.
Duke of Rainford
One run last of 12 at Nottingham.
Appears to be the trainers first runner in this race.
Question. Everything including the draw (8)
Positive. Dwelt and hampered and backed from 10/1 to 11/2 on only run.
Fratellino
Over 4 lengths behind Archers Road at Ascot last time.
Questions. Upped in class from last when RPost said needed a drop in class.
Positives. Led last time and could possibly lead the race if gets a good start from 4
Goodbye Earl.
100-1 in only race hampered and gradually weakened in only race
Question. Everything except the draw.Appears held by My Mandy.
Positives. The draw and stable record in race.
Kings of Leo
This filly came out at Windsor (3/1 fav) and faded after chasing leader.
She won at Warwick on BH Monday.
Questions. The quick outing of only two days.The draw.
Positives. Trainer record in this race. Three of his winners had their first run at Windsor.
Mijas Playa.
Good run when 2nd in a decent race at Nmkt.Tricky Note (1987) came from same race.
Appears to have a couple of pounds in hand over Kings of Leo through a line with Six Wives and more on a line with Azif. Trainer won this 1996.
Questions. Runners who were 2nd on only run have produced 1 win and 3 seconds from 8 qualifiers. The fillies ratio is one second and three unplaced - including Kilcora 1997 who also ran her race at Nmkt.
Positives. Daryll Holland rides her again. Alan Bailey who trained winner that beat Mijas loves Chester and intimated that the winner would run in this race. The draw
(3) based on weakness of lower drawn runners.
My Mandy
Three runs without a win and Pattersea Girl overturned form of first run when they met. Raced alone when decent 2nd at Haydock. If she does that here, from stall 9, she will cover a furlong more.
Questions. No previous winner has had two or three placed runs.The draw.
Positives. Will be company in horse box for Duke of Rainford.
Tom Folan
I have lost count of the number of times this one has been withdrawn from races recently. At least two I can recall. Appears held by Fratellino and Mick Channon should know where he stands through form lines.
Questions. Whether it will run or be withdrawn.
Positive. Good draw.
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