Not the best racing today but a few races to explore.
3.50 Southwell
John Gosden strike rate in all age maiden races on AW tracks is approx 20%
Over todays distance of 8f on AW approx 14%
At Southwell approx 22% (two odds on losers)
Odds On 60% (March - April months 100%)
It is only the latter stat that stops me from laying The Hague today.
It maybe worth a small dabble for interest.
UPDATE
The Hague unplaced 8/11fav
5.50 Folkestone
I am a fan of James Fanshawe as I think he is an ultimate professional at his career.
Fillies handicaps are his one of his specials.
He is very good at some tracks but Folkestone is a negative for him (not only with fillies).
Today Sphere is a decent lay in my opinion.
I would be really confident but his record with Long Break runners is not bad and nothing really stands out in the race. One non runner also.
The remainder of the runners are mainly trained by lesser known trainers and little data is available for comparison. Brendan Powell is generally good with his fillies but will just settle for the lay bet - at the right price.
RESULT Sphere unplaced 2/1 fav
Tips (other source) Busbes Boy 5.35 Folk
Checked it out. Bell has had a couple of 3yo hcp winners at Folk but not this early in season. Also 10f is not his best distance for 3yo hcps. I give it a miss.
RESULT Busbes Boy 3rd 5/2Its a real struggle today
TRD 14.20
UPDATE
5.15 Wetherby (Bumper)
Looking at my database for this race J Johnston does not do well with previous winners of bumpers (3 from 12) that run again in current season (without a break). His placed after a win strike rate is 1 from 4
Wave Power maybe worth taking on and a lay bet (win) is the advice.
P Niven doesn't get many bumper winners but has had two at this track (FTO) around this time of year.
TRD 16.08
RESULT. Wave Power unplaced
Summary
Another good day at the office but my stakes were very limited today - unfortunately!
But the point of it all is profit.
Bank End £1,103.66
Bank Start 1,000.61
Tuesday, 31 March 2009
Monday, 30 March 2009
AW Monday 30th March
Been to busy this morning finalising the 2008 race database.
Have had a look at todays racing - but not in great detail as normal.
2.30 Linga
Wouldn't put anyone off Kipchak but very limited data as Clive Brittain doesn't have many selling stakes runners. The odds on price does not inspire me to bet on this race.
UPDATE
KIPCHACK 1st 1/2fav
3.50 Wolv
Keep Ringing looks my likely bet in this. A filly taking on the colts but can do it.
It ran over 7fur last time and finished well enough to suggest wanted further. Watching the race she appeared to struggle to keep up with pace.
I have to fully research more on this before final decision but have identified negatives for numbers 2, 3 & 4 (nr)
UPDATE
The massive drift on Keep Ringing was a worry
The negatives (Heading East and Hector Spectre) didn't bother me but Lastroarofdtiger and Dhania had to be respected.
The bets were adjusted in running which resulted in a profit as Keep Ringing and Lastroarofdtiger dead heated as winners.
Backed
Keep Ringing 2.83 £219.83 £401.40
Dhania 6.55 £40.00 £222.00
Lastroarofdtiger 10.16 £25.00 £229.00
Lay
Keep Ringing
1.3 £50.00 £65.00 £15.00
1.72 £50.00 £86.00 £36.00
2.1 £7.73 £16.23 £8.50
2.1 £42.27 £88.77 £46.50
2.2 £50.00 £110.00 £60.00
2.4 £8.82 £21.17 £12.35
2.4 £41.18 £98.83 £57.65
Profit on race £152
5.00 Ling
Bee Stinger stands out in this one but form with Murrin may be closer.
Need to check weights.
UPDATE
Bee Stinger unpl
5.30 Linga
Everaard comes out reasonable on system and was surprised to see that it is so low in price.
Bit of work to do before finalising bets.
UPDATE
Everaard unplaced.
Looking at Elsworths record last year in 3yo maiden races it was surprising how low the S.P's were for most of his runners (many with no form) and very few winners.
TRD
13.45
Bank End £1,000.61
Bank Start £930
Have had a look at todays racing - but not in great detail as normal.
2.30 Linga
Wouldn't put anyone off Kipchak but very limited data as Clive Brittain doesn't have many selling stakes runners. The odds on price does not inspire me to bet on this race.
UPDATE
KIPCHACK 1st 1/2fav
3.50 Wolv
Keep Ringing looks my likely bet in this. A filly taking on the colts but can do it.
It ran over 7fur last time and finished well enough to suggest wanted further. Watching the race she appeared to struggle to keep up with pace.
I have to fully research more on this before final decision but have identified negatives for numbers 2, 3 & 4 (nr)
UPDATE
The massive drift on Keep Ringing was a worry
The negatives (Heading East and Hector Spectre) didn't bother me but Lastroarofdtiger and Dhania had to be respected.
The bets were adjusted in running which resulted in a profit as Keep Ringing and Lastroarofdtiger dead heated as winners.
Backed
Keep Ringing 2.83 £219.83 £401.40
Dhania 6.55 £40.00 £222.00
Lastroarofdtiger 10.16 £25.00 £229.00
Lay
Keep Ringing
1.3 £50.00 £65.00 £15.00
1.72 £50.00 £86.00 £36.00
2.1 £7.73 £16.23 £8.50
2.1 £42.27 £88.77 £46.50
2.2 £50.00 £110.00 £60.00
2.4 £8.82 £21.17 £12.35
2.4 £41.18 £98.83 £57.65
Profit on race £152
5.00 Ling
Bee Stinger stands out in this one but form with Murrin may be closer.
Need to check weights.
UPDATE
Bee Stinger unpl
5.30 Linga
Everaard comes out reasonable on system and was surprised to see that it is so low in price.
Bit of work to do before finalising bets.
UPDATE
Everaard unplaced.
Looking at Elsworths record last year in 3yo maiden races it was surprising how low the S.P's were for most of his runners (many with no form) and very few winners.
TRD
13.45
Bank End £1,000.61
Bank Start £930
Sunday, 29 March 2009
DONCASTER Sunday
A good look at the card has failed to find any decent lays today.
The only race for interest today is the 2.30 3yo Maiden Race
Barry Hills runner MAKAAMEN came out slightly better versus John Gosdens runner.
It ticked several boxes including Long Lay Off, Track and Distance.
The fact that Hills has won this race in 98, 01, 02, 03, 04 adds weight to the chances.
Unfortunately the Gosden runner has been withdrawn so the selection is well odds on around 4/6 on Betfair.
UPDATE
MAKAAMEN 1st 1/2 Fav
The only race for interest today is the 2.30 3yo Maiden Race
Barry Hills runner MAKAAMEN came out slightly better versus John Gosdens runner.
It ticked several boxes including Long Lay Off, Track and Distance.
The fact that Hills has won this race in 98, 01, 02, 03, 04 adds weight to the chances.
Unfortunately the Gosden runner has been withdrawn so the selection is well odds on around 4/6 on Betfair.
UPDATE
MAKAAMEN 1st 1/2 Fav
Friday, 27 March 2009
DONCASTER
The wait is over as Doncaster heralds the start of the Flat Season on Saturday.
It is unlikely to be a bounding start in betting terms though. Last season was stop start with the weather and lower grade racing during early weeks. The race tickets for Chester in May have been purchased
My assessment for Doncaster / Kempton will be posted around lunch time Saturday.
2.10 Donc
The paper fav Swilly Ferry has to be a negative in this race based upon trainers record in 2yo Conditions stakes with first time out runners.
The best trainer record is Could It Be Magic but such a race is best ignored.
MY BET is a lay on Swilly Ferry at 5/1 or less
2.45 Doncaster
I cannot fire any enthusiam for Fireside in this race.
My Bet is a lay on Fireside
3.20 Doncaster
Another difficult race but I wouldn't put anyone off Prime Defender as trainer has
a decent record in listed stakes with runners after a long break.
No Bet for me though
3.55 Doncaster
Lincoln Hcp is not a race for me
No Bet
Kempton.
1.50 3Yo Hcp
These races are difficult at this time of year.
Not many trainers win with a single run winner (except Mark Johnson)
so question mark against Nawaadi and Clumber Place.
Have a negative for Changing The Guard.
No Bet in this race.
5.20 Hcp
Meshtri is a definite lay for me here.
Probably best lay of the day on stats.
BET - Lay Meshtri
Other thoughts.
M Botti has some interesting runners today.
Tips from other source for
London Bridge (I have concerns so not backing it for win)
Royal Executioner 1.50 Kemp (maybe the answer?)
Good Luck
TRD
12.10pm Sat
UpdateA very good day all round with all the Lays getting beat.
Royal Executioner 2nd 8/1 showed a place bet profit
M Botti had 14/1 winner
Bank Start £500
Bank End £930
It is unlikely to be a bounding start in betting terms though. Last season was stop start with the weather and lower grade racing during early weeks. The race tickets for Chester in May have been purchased
My assessment for Doncaster / Kempton will be posted around lunch time Saturday.
2.10 Donc
The paper fav Swilly Ferry has to be a negative in this race based upon trainers record in 2yo Conditions stakes with first time out runners.
The best trainer record is Could It Be Magic but such a race is best ignored.
MY BET is a lay on Swilly Ferry at 5/1 or less
2.45 Doncaster
I cannot fire any enthusiam for Fireside in this race.
My Bet is a lay on Fireside
3.20 Doncaster
Another difficult race but I wouldn't put anyone off Prime Defender as trainer has
a decent record in listed stakes with runners after a long break.
No Bet for me though
3.55 Doncaster
Lincoln Hcp is not a race for me
No Bet
Kempton.
1.50 3Yo Hcp
These races are difficult at this time of year.
Not many trainers win with a single run winner (except Mark Johnson)
so question mark against Nawaadi and Clumber Place.
Have a negative for Changing The Guard.
No Bet in this race.
5.20 Hcp
Meshtri is a definite lay for me here.
Probably best lay of the day on stats.
BET - Lay Meshtri
Other thoughts.
M Botti has some interesting runners today.
Tips from other source for
London Bridge (I have concerns so not backing it for win)
Royal Executioner 1.50 Kemp (maybe the answer?)
Good Luck
TRD
12.10pm Sat
UpdateA very good day all round with all the Lays getting beat.
Royal Executioner 2nd 8/1 showed a place bet profit
M Botti had 14/1 winner
Bank Start £500
Bank End £930
Thursday, 19 March 2009
WINTER DERBY
UPDATEUnable to get a line on this years race.
The below stuff didn't indicate the winner Scintillo.
That one did not have a good AW wins to runs ratio but ran all
its races at Listed or Group Level (apart from first run)
The lay bet was on Premier Loco (2nd) but it was close!!!
This is a reproduction of an assessment of 2007 race
The bold highlighted comments may be useful.
Main Areas of Analysis based on positives from previous winners
C&D winners
Winners this year
Distance winners
Latest win over distance of race
Listed Grade run
Listed Grade win
Win to runs ratio
AW wins to run ratio
Lingfield AW run ratio
Days since run
Last Season endurance
Taking all these factors into account the following scores per runner
C U SOON 12
MIGHTY 10
SRI DIAMOND 9
BLUE BAJAN 9
CIMYLA 9
SPEEDY SAM 8
GENTLEMANS DEAL 7 WINNER
GRAND PASSION 7
RED SPELL 7
ORCHARD SUPREME 6
HATTAN 5
ALFIE FLITS 4
ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE 3
LUBERON 1
Cusoon won the main trial for this race by short head from Blue Bajan.
Five previous winners of this trial race have won the Winter Derby and one was second out of the 8 races since 1999.
Cusoon is no certainty but ticks all the right boxes and improved from handicap company to win the listed trial event last time out.
Six of the eight previous winners had progressive wins from handicaps to listed grade. This race was run as a Listed event until 2006 when it became Group 3 status. The statistical trends did not alter in last years result.
The race readers regarded that Blue was unlucky in running.
A similar incident occurred in 1999 when Refuse to Lose was narrowly beaten
in the trial race and started at 6/4 fav for Derby race finishing unplaced.
Blue Bajan’s highest grade win was class 3 stakes race at Ascot last September.
Normally the winner of this race has previously won a Listed Event.
“Blue’s” 2 wins from 9 over the distance are slightly below the average previous winners ratio. Also “Blue” has won 4 of his 7 wins over a distance of 12 furlongs – the only other winner of this race to record a win over 12 furs was Sri Diamond (2 wins over that distance). In Blue’s favour are 3 runs at Linga (W22) and his race class for last 3 races since his Ascot win have upped to Class 2, Listed & Listed. Another positive is jockey M Hills who has ridden him 3 times finishing WW2(short head).
Mighty has only had 6 career runs resulting in 3 wins – all at Lingfield AW over this distance.
Adiemus & Parasol won this race with 8 and 9 runs under their belt. Both had good win ratio at Linga (2 from 4 and 1 from 1 respectively).
Mighty has yet to win at listed level but is improving and has progressed in class with each race. Whether he can turn the tables on Cusoon and Blue Bajan is the issue?
Sri Diamond ticks most of the boxes and his Linga runs 30WWW5WWW are excellent. He is also a Group 3 winner having won this race last year.
The concern is a short season last year ending in April. The majority of winners have a full season to November or December and also a win during February in current year.
“Sri’s” class 2 handicap win 77 days ago may just not be quite good enough though 6 wins from 9 races at Linga plus 7 wins from last 11 races and successes in March for last 2 years shouldn’t put him out of calculations. Adiemus failed narrowly to follow up his 2002 win in this race a year later.
Cimyla ran 5th in last years race (with Grand Passion and Red Spell).
He does have a good AW record – 5 wins from 7 runs.
Previous runners do not fare well as winners in next years running.
Gentlemans Deal is the wild card in the race. Never ran at Lingfield or won over distance. He has however won all his 6 AW races, including a listed event last time out. He is improving and could very well win this.
I cannot make much case out for the remainder.
SUMMARY;
There are a number of good AW performers in this years race.
Whether the race is a proper G3 or just a good Listed event that suits AW performers is the question. I suspect the latter and the race should go to a consistent and improving performer like the previous years. I wouldn’t place too much emphasis on age or draw. The top speed ratings cover the 3 named below.
Selection. CUSOON
Alternative. GENTLEMANS DEAL (Winner)
EW. BLUE BAJAN
Not a race to get too involved in!
The below stuff didn't indicate the winner Scintillo.
That one did not have a good AW wins to runs ratio but ran all
its races at Listed or Group Level (apart from first run)
The lay bet was on Premier Loco (2nd) but it was close!!!
This is a reproduction of an assessment of 2007 race
The bold highlighted comments may be useful.
Main Areas of Analysis based on positives from previous winners
C&D winners
Winners this year
Distance winners
Latest win over distance of race
Listed Grade run
Listed Grade win
Win to runs ratio
AW wins to run ratio
Lingfield AW run ratio
Days since run
Last Season endurance
Taking all these factors into account the following scores per runner
C U SOON 12
MIGHTY 10
SRI DIAMOND 9
BLUE BAJAN 9
CIMYLA 9
SPEEDY SAM 8
GENTLEMANS DEAL 7 WINNER
GRAND PASSION 7
RED SPELL 7
ORCHARD SUPREME 6
HATTAN 5
ALFIE FLITS 4
ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE 3
LUBERON 1
Cusoon won the main trial for this race by short head from Blue Bajan.
Five previous winners of this trial race have won the Winter Derby and one was second out of the 8 races since 1999.
Cusoon is no certainty but ticks all the right boxes and improved from handicap company to win the listed trial event last time out.
Six of the eight previous winners had progressive wins from handicaps to listed grade. This race was run as a Listed event until 2006 when it became Group 3 status. The statistical trends did not alter in last years result.
The race readers regarded that Blue was unlucky in running.
A similar incident occurred in 1999 when Refuse to Lose was narrowly beaten
in the trial race and started at 6/4 fav for Derby race finishing unplaced.
Blue Bajan’s highest grade win was class 3 stakes race at Ascot last September.
Normally the winner of this race has previously won a Listed Event.
“Blue’s” 2 wins from 9 over the distance are slightly below the average previous winners ratio. Also “Blue” has won 4 of his 7 wins over a distance of 12 furlongs – the only other winner of this race to record a win over 12 furs was Sri Diamond (2 wins over that distance). In Blue’s favour are 3 runs at Linga (W22) and his race class for last 3 races since his Ascot win have upped to Class 2, Listed & Listed. Another positive is jockey M Hills who has ridden him 3 times finishing WW2(short head).
Mighty has only had 6 career runs resulting in 3 wins – all at Lingfield AW over this distance.
Adiemus & Parasol won this race with 8 and 9 runs under their belt. Both had good win ratio at Linga (2 from 4 and 1 from 1 respectively).
Mighty has yet to win at listed level but is improving and has progressed in class with each race. Whether he can turn the tables on Cusoon and Blue Bajan is the issue?
Sri Diamond ticks most of the boxes and his Linga runs 30WWW5WWW are excellent. He is also a Group 3 winner having won this race last year.
The concern is a short season last year ending in April. The majority of winners have a full season to November or December and also a win during February in current year.
“Sri’s” class 2 handicap win 77 days ago may just not be quite good enough though 6 wins from 9 races at Linga plus 7 wins from last 11 races and successes in March for last 2 years shouldn’t put him out of calculations. Adiemus failed narrowly to follow up his 2002 win in this race a year later.
Cimyla ran 5th in last years race (with Grand Passion and Red Spell).
He does have a good AW record – 5 wins from 7 runs.
Previous runners do not fare well as winners in next years running.
Gentlemans Deal is the wild card in the race. Never ran at Lingfield or won over distance. He has however won all his 6 AW races, including a listed event last time out. He is improving and could very well win this.
I cannot make much case out for the remainder.
SUMMARY;
There are a number of good AW performers in this years race.
Whether the race is a proper G3 or just a good Listed event that suits AW performers is the question. I suspect the latter and the race should go to a consistent and improving performer like the previous years. I wouldn’t place too much emphasis on age or draw. The top speed ratings cover the 3 named below.
Selection. CUSOON
Alternative. GENTLEMANS DEAL (Winner)
EW. BLUE BAJAN
Not a race to get too involved in!
LUDLOW - AYR Bumpers 19/3/2009
Ludlow and Henrietta Knight and Bumpers
4yo FTO
50% strike rate
If fav then 4-5
March runners 112
Runner today Cashpoint
Ayr
Len Lungo does OK her whilst it does not appear to be Alan Swinbanks track.
Not much to go on in this Amateur / Conditional event
Lungo has James Reveley jocked up on Fairlea Bob and is the only rider not claiming an allowance.
Small win bets.
TRD
UPDATE
I am losing the plot on Bumpers as the flat season nears.
Both above unplaced.
The Bumpers will now take a back seat until May.
4yo FTO
50% strike rate
If fav then 4-5
March runners 112
Runner today Cashpoint
Ayr
Len Lungo does OK her whilst it does not appear to be Alan Swinbanks track.
Not much to go on in this Amateur / Conditional event
Lungo has James Reveley jocked up on Fairlea Bob and is the only rider not claiming an allowance.
Small win bets.
TRD
UPDATE
I am losing the plot on Bumpers as the flat season nears.
Both above unplaced.
The Bumpers will now take a back seat until May.
Wednesday, 18 March 2009
CHEPSTOW BUMPER 18/3/2009
There are fair reasons to lay in todays race.
P Nicholls record with winners last run in Intermediate Bumper races only 20% and his best ratio is after a break of over 150 days.
Aldertune comes here with a win 50 days ago.
Nicholls overall record at Chepstow in bumpers borders is around 45%, which is good.
My system criteria for todays race similar to Aldertune credentials is no winners from 12 races.
Enough for a LAY.
Not endeavoured with Hobbs runner either but laying both 1st and 2nd favourite is probably not a profitable venture.
TRD
RESULT UPDATE 19/3/09
1st Volador 5/6 fav
2nd Timeshift 10/1
3rd Aldertune 7/2
P Nicholls record with winners last run in Intermediate Bumper races only 20% and his best ratio is after a break of over 150 days.
Aldertune comes here with a win 50 days ago.
Nicholls overall record at Chepstow in bumpers borders is around 45%, which is good.
My system criteria for todays race similar to Aldertune credentials is no winners from 12 races.
Enough for a LAY.
Not endeavoured with Hobbs runner either but laying both 1st and 2nd favourite is probably not a profitable venture.
TRD
RESULT UPDATE 19/3/09
1st Volador 5/6 fav
2nd Timeshift 10/1
3rd Aldertune 7/2
Sunday, 15 March 2009
Sunday Bumpers 15/3/2009
Two Mares Open Races at Southwell today.
Hayes Princess
The success rate of wlto1 (win last time 1st run) in Mares races is approx 37% and in March months the strike rate is only 2 from 14.
The win rate at Southwell wlto1 runners is pretty good though and although very few in the female side - all three have won.
Whichever way you look at it Tim Vaughans runner should be placed.
Floras Pride
Runners placed on only run (in Mares races) have a strike rate of approx 23%.
Take the Reveley Stable and their strike rate is 1 from 8 (13%) which is the same as the stable strike rate in all races at Southwell track.
If the favourites are taken into account for March races then 3 from 14 have won.
Although forecast fav it is not certain that Floras Pride will start fav but the percentages today seem against her and a LAY bet is advised
A high percentage of FTO runners in both races makes it difficult to nominate the winners with any confidence.
TRD
Update
Hayes Princess finished 4th just missing a place by half a length in a close run race.
The lay on Floras Pride was successful.
Hayes Princess
The success rate of wlto1 (win last time 1st run) in Mares races is approx 37% and in March months the strike rate is only 2 from 14.
The win rate at Southwell wlto1 runners is pretty good though and although very few in the female side - all three have won.
Whichever way you look at it Tim Vaughans runner should be placed.
Floras Pride
Runners placed on only run (in Mares races) have a strike rate of approx 23%.
Take the Reveley Stable and their strike rate is 1 from 8 (13%) which is the same as the stable strike rate in all races at Southwell track.
If the favourites are taken into account for March races then 3 from 14 have won.
Although forecast fav it is not certain that Floras Pride will start fav but the percentages today seem against her and a LAY bet is advised
A high percentage of FTO runners in both races makes it difficult to nominate the winners with any confidence.
TRD
Update
Hayes Princess finished 4th just missing a place by half a length in a close run race.
The lay on Floras Pride was successful.
Wednesday, 11 March 2009
CHAMPION BUMPER 2009
The Champion Bumper.
Willie Mullins is the Champion trainer in this race.
He runs 8 in today’s bumper to confuse things
Has won 6 Champion races in past runs so there maybe some clues.
Previous fields in 2000, 2003, 2006 & 2008 included 4 Mullins runners
And produced 2 winners. The S.P. of those winners 14/1 and 12/1
CLUE 1.
If he is running so many in the race the winner is unlikely to be a short price
His 6 previous winners included FIVE 5yo’s and one 6yo.
The interesting thing is that 5 of his winners had won their only race.
Mullins is the only trainer to win with a single run winner.
He has run three that started favourite and one won.
ELIMINATED: Sicilian Secret
CLUE 2.
If the winner is one of the single run winners then it is likely to be a 5yo as the trainers five 6yo’s in previous years with the same credential failed to win.
ELIMINATED: Meath All Star, Sicilian Secret and Morning Supreme
Maringo came here in 1994 with two wins from two runs during current season and ran unplaced. There has been one winner with those credential (Dato Star) but examining the Cheltenham and Aintree top Spring period races there have been 3 winners from at least 20 qualifiers and two of those were 4yo’s (including Dato Star)
CLUE 3.
The two run, two win, runners is unlikely to win based upon the 67-day absence and the above.
ELIMINATED: Quinola Des Obeaux
Mullins has never come here with a runner with form figures 21.
That form data has won this race once in 1993 and there have been at least 11 other qualifiers, albeit very few top trainers.
CLUE 4.
Only Liberman, Hairy Molly and Rhythm Section won this with a figure 2 in their form and both first two won 2 races prior to this race, and latter was a 4yo.
ELIMINATED: Cranky Corner
We are now left with three of his runners
Cadspeed (Didn’t win at Naas LTO and jockey hasn’t won NHF race)
Quel Esprit (won pp over 3miles and then nhf race over 20f)
Gagewell Flyer
Adopting some of the above information some will realise that others
ELIMINATED:
Sicilian Passage (clue 3)
Abroad (clue 4)
Double Dash (clue 4)
Fennis Boy (clue 4)
Long Strand (clue 4)
Pepe Simo (clue 4)
Some Present (clue 1)
Some other “suspects” to keep in mind are
Bygones of Brid (reasonable outsider)
Dunguib (impressive last win, but Amateur Jockey*)
Henry King (the single run win contender but only Mullins has achieved this)
Red Harbour (Ascot win has come up before but strike rate for 3 consec wins is 1 from 6)
Shinrock Paddy (won Cheltenham race that Hairy Molly and Liberman ran in, but Amateur Jockey*)
Latin America. (Best 4yo)
A few decent Amateur Jockeys riding this year but, apart from last year, it has not been won previously by an Amateur.
AGE;
Two 4yo winners.
The three 6yo winners all won LTO at Naas in current season, and had three or four runs.
The 5yo’s with 11 top the winners.
Decision Time
With eight runners it is an assumption that Mullins means to win this or he will have egg on his face after the race.
He has run four in the race on four occasions resulting in two wins.
Some cash is needed to pay the travel and entry fees for all these runners and the owners travel expenses.
QUEL ESPIRIT may give Ruby his third win for Willie Mullins from 11 rides in this race but have some doubt about his wins over further distances.
GAGEWELL FLYER may be a possible but this is
D.J Caseys fifth ride in this for trainer and no success so far.
If not Mullins then maybe SHINROCK PADDY or DUNGUIB if the Amateurs are up to it. One of them had a ride last year in this race.
I cannot bet with conviction though.
TRD
UPDATE (13/3/09)
So Willie Mullins didn't win it - but the selected Quel Espirit finished in 4th and was the best placed of his eight runners.
Winner (and by far) was DUNGUIB and backed from a.m. price of 7/1 into 9/2.
The favourite Right of Passage finished 3rd at 5/2.
A profit was made by laying the fav as per my advice put on betfair forum:-
11 Mar 16:38
" Champion
The fav looks a lay now dropping around 7/2.
The highest price Fav has been 4/1
I recall only 3 favs have won.
No unbeaten runner that ended up fav has won from eleven qualifiers "
Now 12 qualifiers have failed and looks a very good stat to follow.
Willie Mullins is the Champion trainer in this race.
He runs 8 in today’s bumper to confuse things
Has won 6 Champion races in past runs so there maybe some clues.
Previous fields in 2000, 2003, 2006 & 2008 included 4 Mullins runners
And produced 2 winners. The S.P. of those winners 14/1 and 12/1
CLUE 1.
If he is running so many in the race the winner is unlikely to be a short price
His 6 previous winners included FIVE 5yo’s and one 6yo.
The interesting thing is that 5 of his winners had won their only race.
Mullins is the only trainer to win with a single run winner.
He has run three that started favourite and one won.
ELIMINATED: Sicilian Secret
CLUE 2.
If the winner is one of the single run winners then it is likely to be a 5yo as the trainers five 6yo’s in previous years with the same credential failed to win.
ELIMINATED: Meath All Star, Sicilian Secret and Morning Supreme
Maringo came here in 1994 with two wins from two runs during current season and ran unplaced. There has been one winner with those credential (Dato Star) but examining the Cheltenham and Aintree top Spring period races there have been 3 winners from at least 20 qualifiers and two of those were 4yo’s (including Dato Star)
CLUE 3.
The two run, two win, runners is unlikely to win based upon the 67-day absence and the above.
ELIMINATED: Quinola Des Obeaux
Mullins has never come here with a runner with form figures 21.
That form data has won this race once in 1993 and there have been at least 11 other qualifiers, albeit very few top trainers.
CLUE 4.
Only Liberman, Hairy Molly and Rhythm Section won this with a figure 2 in their form and both first two won 2 races prior to this race, and latter was a 4yo.
ELIMINATED: Cranky Corner
We are now left with three of his runners
Cadspeed (Didn’t win at Naas LTO and jockey hasn’t won NHF race)
Quel Esprit (won pp over 3miles and then nhf race over 20f)
Gagewell Flyer
Adopting some of the above information some will realise that others
ELIMINATED:
Sicilian Passage (clue 3)
Abroad (clue 4)
Double Dash (clue 4)
Fennis Boy (clue 4)
Long Strand (clue 4)
Pepe Simo (clue 4)
Some Present (clue 1)
Some other “suspects” to keep in mind are
Bygones of Brid (reasonable outsider)
Dunguib (impressive last win, but Amateur Jockey*)
Henry King (the single run win contender but only Mullins has achieved this)
Red Harbour (Ascot win has come up before but strike rate for 3 consec wins is 1 from 6)
Shinrock Paddy (won Cheltenham race that Hairy Molly and Liberman ran in, but Amateur Jockey*)
Latin America. (Best 4yo)
A few decent Amateur Jockeys riding this year but, apart from last year, it has not been won previously by an Amateur.
AGE;
Two 4yo winners.
The three 6yo winners all won LTO at Naas in current season, and had three or four runs.
The 5yo’s with 11 top the winners.
Decision Time
With eight runners it is an assumption that Mullins means to win this or he will have egg on his face after the race.
He has run four in the race on four occasions resulting in two wins.
Some cash is needed to pay the travel and entry fees for all these runners and the owners travel expenses.
QUEL ESPIRIT may give Ruby his third win for Willie Mullins from 11 rides in this race but have some doubt about his wins over further distances.
GAGEWELL FLYER may be a possible but this is
D.J Caseys fifth ride in this for trainer and no success so far.
If not Mullins then maybe SHINROCK PADDY or DUNGUIB if the Amateurs are up to it. One of them had a ride last year in this race.
I cannot bet with conviction though.
TRD
UPDATE (13/3/09)
So Willie Mullins didn't win it - but the selected Quel Espirit finished in 4th and was the best placed of his eight runners.
Winner (and by far) was DUNGUIB and backed from a.m. price of 7/1 into 9/2.
The favourite Right of Passage finished 3rd at 5/2.
A profit was made by laying the fav as per my advice put on betfair forum:-
11 Mar 16:38
" Champion
The fav looks a lay now dropping around 7/2.
The highest price Fav has been 4/1
I recall only 3 favs have won.
No unbeaten runner that ended up fav has won from eleven qualifiers "
Now 12 qualifiers have failed and looks a very good stat to follow.
Monday, 9 March 2009
STRATFORD MDN Bumper 9/3/2009
On first glance it appears that Flanagan or Pipe Banner (owned by the Queen) are the pick of the field. Maybe an interesting finish between McCoy and Amateur jockey.
Venetia Williams has actually had a runner in three of these Stratford maidens prior to the start of Cheltenham Festival and won two of those – a stat worthy of consideration.
Nick Henderson has Pipe Banner which was placed 2nd on its last run and has been off course for 10 weeks. Generally the trainer does not have a good strike rate with his runners after a such a break and if he has a winner it has been a beaten favourite. That doesn’t point towards his other runner Miss Sassi much though as the BF strike rate is not that good.
The research of placed LTO runners with more than one run in all Bumper maidens in months of March reveals a good win strike rate – 50%
However when analysing the age groups the 4yo’s have an excellent 75% win strike rate whilst the 5yo drops to 25%.
Flanagan ran 2nd on its only run so comparing the stats for placed runners on only outing in March months reveals an overall win strike rate of 34% and for 5yo’s 38%
It appears that Flanagan has a slightly better chance on these stats but not suggesting this as the clear winner.
Paul Nicholls, N Gifford and C Egerton both have a decent strike rate in maiden bumpers of todays trainers.
The first two do not seem fond of Stratford but Egerton has had a winner here in a maiden can get them to win after a lengthy break.
Surprisingly Nicholls has not had a FTO maiden race winner since Noland won in March 2005. He has not had a maiden winner at Stratford or a maiden runner here (confirmed with Timeform trainer dbase)
He did win with Eight Palms here FTO in March 2008 in an Open race.
Stratford has not had many bumper races though - 32 since 1999.
Henry Daly deserves a mention and runs Disco Jack – another off course for a while. Was withdrawn from Ryde Back’s race at Huntingdon 8 days ago.
Not a race to get too involved with but as an interest
Quatzar and Flanagan.
Another interesting angle was that Flanagans jockey had his first ride for Egerton last Friday. I wouldn’t presume that it was too ask him about Flanagans chance in todays race??????
Good Luck if you are playing.
UPDATE (13/3/2009)
The winner was Paul Nicholls FTO runner at 10/1
I backed Quatzar and Flanagan but laid Pipe Banner (2nd)
Quatzar was available at 30/1 and more (touched 45/1) throught out the day.
I have the opinion that someone in the know held the price high as it ran a good race, trading quite low (layed off at 5's but went lower), and I will follow next time if in a bumper.
Flanagan ran no sort of race despite being backed from 9/2 to joint fav at 2/1.
Venetia Williams has actually had a runner in three of these Stratford maidens prior to the start of Cheltenham Festival and won two of those – a stat worthy of consideration.
Nick Henderson has Pipe Banner which was placed 2nd on its last run and has been off course for 10 weeks. Generally the trainer does not have a good strike rate with his runners after a such a break and if he has a winner it has been a beaten favourite. That doesn’t point towards his other runner Miss Sassi much though as the BF strike rate is not that good.
The research of placed LTO runners with more than one run in all Bumper maidens in months of March reveals a good win strike rate – 50%
However when analysing the age groups the 4yo’s have an excellent 75% win strike rate whilst the 5yo drops to 25%.
Flanagan ran 2nd on its only run so comparing the stats for placed runners on only outing in March months reveals an overall win strike rate of 34% and for 5yo’s 38%
It appears that Flanagan has a slightly better chance on these stats but not suggesting this as the clear winner.
Paul Nicholls, N Gifford and C Egerton both have a decent strike rate in maiden bumpers of todays trainers.
The first two do not seem fond of Stratford but Egerton has had a winner here in a maiden can get them to win after a lengthy break.
Surprisingly Nicholls has not had a FTO maiden race winner since Noland won in March 2005. He has not had a maiden winner at Stratford or a maiden runner here (confirmed with Timeform trainer dbase)
He did win with Eight Palms here FTO in March 2008 in an Open race.
Stratford has not had many bumper races though - 32 since 1999.
Henry Daly deserves a mention and runs Disco Jack – another off course for a while. Was withdrawn from Ryde Back’s race at Huntingdon 8 days ago.
Not a race to get too involved with but as an interest
Quatzar and Flanagan.
Another interesting angle was that Flanagans jockey had his first ride for Egerton last Friday. I wouldn’t presume that it was too ask him about Flanagans chance in todays race??????
Good Luck if you are playing.
UPDATE (13/3/2009)
The winner was Paul Nicholls FTO runner at 10/1
I backed Quatzar and Flanagan but laid Pipe Banner (2nd)
Quatzar was available at 30/1 and more (touched 45/1) throught out the day.
I have the opinion that someone in the know held the price high as it ran a good race, trading quite low (layed off at 5's but went lower), and I will follow next time if in a bumper.
Flanagan ran no sort of race despite being backed from 9/2 to joint fav at 2/1.
Sunday, 8 March 2009
Sunday Bumpers 8/3/2009
A couple of poor races but...
KELSO
Len Lungo gets a lot of first run winners at Ayr but not at Kelso.
Nick Richards runs the paper fav who was 3rd on only run when fav.
There have been a fair number of Races at Kelso to compare and they were mainly won by placed or first run horses.
The problem with Premier Sagas is that he has had a break of 104 days off track. No winner has occurred with one placed run and such a break. The Richards stable has provided at least two such runners and both were favs and lost.
The same applies to the other placed runner in the field - Butter.
It is suspected that a first run horse may win the race.
George Moore gets a few FTO winners but all were 4yo's and his runner tomorrow is a 5yo.
The Swinbank horse is another FTO runner but Kelso does not appear to be his choice track.
D McCain travels up to Scotland with his FTO runner but how many winners does he get up there FTO?
The only trainer from tomorrows runners that appears to have had a FTO winner at Kelso is G Charlton.
If you think that race is bad enough then the Warwick Mares Maiden race is even worse to work out.
Going on the previous Warwick races of this type they are normally won by a placed or FTO runner but there are no placed runners tomorrow and only two FTO runners from little known trainers.
Paul Webber seems to be only trainer of those in the race who has had a winner in a maiden here. At least Penny queen was placed on her forst run.
The easy thing to do on this non flat racing day is concentrate on the garden or take the family out - or study for Cheltenham of course!
KELSO
Len Lungo gets a lot of first run winners at Ayr but not at Kelso.
Nick Richards runs the paper fav who was 3rd on only run when fav.
There have been a fair number of Races at Kelso to compare and they were mainly won by placed or first run horses.
The problem with Premier Sagas is that he has had a break of 104 days off track. No winner has occurred with one placed run and such a break. The Richards stable has provided at least two such runners and both were favs and lost.
The same applies to the other placed runner in the field - Butter.
It is suspected that a first run horse may win the race.
George Moore gets a few FTO winners but all were 4yo's and his runner tomorrow is a 5yo.
The Swinbank horse is another FTO runner but Kelso does not appear to be his choice track.
D McCain travels up to Scotland with his FTO runner but how many winners does he get up there FTO?
The only trainer from tomorrows runners that appears to have had a FTO winner at Kelso is G Charlton.
If you think that race is bad enough then the Warwick Mares Maiden race is even worse to work out.
Going on the previous Warwick races of this type they are normally won by a placed or FTO runner but there are no placed runners tomorrow and only two FTO runners from little known trainers.
Paul Webber seems to be only trainer of those in the race who has had a winner in a maiden here. At least Penny queen was placed on her forst run.
The easy thing to do on this non flat racing day is concentrate on the garden or take the family out - or study for Cheltenham of course!
Friday, 6 March 2009
WINCANTON BUMPER 6/3/09
Wincanton 5.30
A maiden race.
Race Stats
There have been eight similar races at track since 2003 all ran in month of March
3 First Time Out winners - all 4yo
1 Placed Last Time Out - 6yo
3 Placed on only run - all 5yo's (two BF)
Comparing the trainer stats at course since 1988
Best trainers
P Nicholls and P Hobbs
Put these two criteria together and the field is reduced to
Chesil Beach Boy
Melteme
Pennellis
Lomitaar
Imperial Falcon
Tocca Ferro
All bar Pennellis and Tocca Ferro are 20/1 plus so maybe some value there.
As far as I can work out P Nicholls has only had one winner (Tinoveritas) that was 2nd on first run and unplaced on second run - and that was in a maiden race. His overall record in NHFlat races with this particuar criteria is 1 in 4 but all were in frame.
He certainly has the best record in maidens here with form figures 2121110
It would certainly be stupid to lay but sensible to back for a place and have a couple of quid to win on some of bigger price qualifiers.
Hobbs has had a few 6yo winners FTO in maidens but hasn't won a maiden at Wincanton.
The weaker selected appear to be 4yo FTO Imperial Falcon (backed at 280-1) and Lomitaar.
A maiden race.
Race Stats
There have been eight similar races at track since 2003 all ran in month of March
3 First Time Out winners - all 4yo
1 Placed Last Time Out - 6yo
3 Placed on only run - all 5yo's (two BF)
Comparing the trainer stats at course since 1988
Best trainers
P Nicholls and P Hobbs
Put these two criteria together and the field is reduced to
Chesil Beach Boy
Melteme
Pennellis
Lomitaar
Imperial Falcon
Tocca Ferro
All bar Pennellis and Tocca Ferro are 20/1 plus so maybe some value there.
As far as I can work out P Nicholls has only had one winner (Tinoveritas) that was 2nd on first run and unplaced on second run - and that was in a maiden race. His overall record in NHFlat races with this particuar criteria is 1 in 4 but all were in frame.
He certainly has the best record in maidens here with form figures 2121110
It would certainly be stupid to lay but sensible to back for a place and have a couple of quid to win on some of bigger price qualifiers.
Hobbs has had a few 6yo winners FTO in maidens but hasn't won a maiden at Wincanton.
The weaker selected appear to be 4yo FTO Imperial Falcon (backed at 280-1) and Lomitaar.
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