CHAMPAGNE ST DONC Sept.
Statistics from 1982 – 2007
25 runnings -1989 abandoned - dead heat 2005
A “Trainers” race with 7 trainers winning at least two runnings.
B W Hills heads the list with 4 wins. Only other trainer, this year, with win is R Hannon.
“WINNERS”
5 one run winners – 4 won, 7f – other 3rd Listed 7f.
8 two run winners – 6 won both runs – 2 won & 2nd in other race.
7 three run winners – all won two or all runs – all ran and won in pattern race.
6 four to five run winners (inc dd heat race) – all ran in Group race – won or placed (except one of dd heat winners).
16 winners won on first outing.
21 winners that had more than one run WON on their 2nd outing – only Young Runaway 1984 failed (2nd)
24 of 25 won on first and / or second outing – only Bog Trotter 1990 failed (3rd on only run in listed)
11 of 13 won on third outing.
18 winners had previous run in Pattern race.
If ran at Nmkt (10) they ALL WON.
If ran at Nwby (7) was 1st or 2nd.
If ran at Goodwood 7 from 8 won. All last runs at Goodwood were wins (Group race)
If ran at Doncaster they won (3).
If ran at Northern track they won except at York where all were pattern races.
11 favourites won – 7 odds on.
Master Noverre comes here with arguably best form credentials having finished 2nd in Gimcrack Group 2 run at Newbury after York washout but Westphalia also has Group race form in Ireland..
War Native and Playfellow come here with similar form of two wins in maidens, and novice events (on All Weather track).
<Zacinto won over distance at Sandown but with only one run and an absence of 71 days does not represent value.
TIMEFORM.
Master Noverre 124 improver
Westphalia 124
Zacinto 123 capable of much better
Playfellow 120 improver
War Native 118 improver
RACEFORM RATINGS
Master Noverre 120
Westphalia 123
Playfellow 105
Zacinto 111
War Native 99
SPLIT SECOND / TOP SPEED
Master Noverre 104 106
Westphalia 101 110
Zacinto 95 111
Playfellow 96 100
War Native 93 92
RESULT
1st Westphalia 10/3
2nd Zacinto 13/8 fav
3rd Playfellow 7/2
REVIEW.
Interesting to see that Group form held up over Zacinto maiden form.
Only just got up though and the long absence off the course may have been Zacinto's achilles heel.
Noteworthy that by taking all the above ratings Westphalia did come out overall top rated.
Saturday, 13 September 2008
Sunday, 7 September 2008
DONCASTER St Leger Meeting Setember
Hopefully this will be on but a lot of rain around at time and loads of abandonments this year.
Will put up some race stats after declarations are known and form study
WEDS Not much in way of stats
THURSDAY
2.00 PARK HILL fills Group race
An interesting STAT about this race is that almost every winner over the past 20 years has never run as far as the distance (15 fur) of this race.
The only horses to buck the trend were Book at Bedtime and Discreet Brief - both
3yo's.
That raises a question about ALLEGRETTO who has won over 2 miles and this year has run over 16f 20f and 12f in her 3 runs. She has solid Group 1 form.
All the older winners of this race (five) were up in distance by at least 2 furlongs from previous runs.
The only 5yo winner Sweet Song came into this race with a Group 3 win in its last run.
All the 3yo wiiners (11 since it came open to 4yo and above) had won a race in current season.
This stat may exclude Presbyterian Nun from the win bet but she may improve for the 3fur extra in distance like 8 of the past winners.
GRAVITATION comes here as a first season 3yo and only one 3yo winner since the race became open to older horses was a first season runner. Also Gravitation is not going up in distance for this race having ran 3rd in Royal Ascot Vase over 2 miles.
Interesting that Book of Bedtime also ran 3rd in Vase and was the only first season
3yo runner to win. Also both ran at Goodwood prior to this.
Gull Wing was entered for the race last year and had then run in Galtres Stakes which is a key race. She has run well in her two races over 14fur but ran poorly last time out.
RESULT
ALLEGRETTO 1st 7/4 fav (easy winner)
1.30 2yo Conditions race 7FThis was posted on Betfair Forum just prior to race
Difficult to get a line on this race regarding stats.
No single run winner this year (3 from 9 qualifiers)
Winner LTO with two runs 1 from 4 qualifiers (Midnight Cruiser)
looking at Weights gives another prespective
9-2 4 wins from 9 AND 5 seconds (Courageous)
9-0 0 from 3 (midnight Cruiser)
8-12 3 from 7 (Chief Red Cloud & Crackdown)
8-9 1 from 6 (Bigalos Star & Secrecy)
8-7 0-1 (Yorksters Girl)
On the weight basis its Courageous each way.
However one of the FTO runners may win.
RESULT
SECRECY 1st 12/1
COURAGEOUS 2nd 16/1 (5.6 for place)
Will put up some race stats after declarations are known and form study
WEDS Not much in way of stats
THURSDAY
2.00 PARK HILL fills Group race
An interesting STAT about this race is that almost every winner over the past 20 years has never run as far as the distance (15 fur) of this race.
The only horses to buck the trend were Book at Bedtime and Discreet Brief - both
3yo's.
That raises a question about ALLEGRETTO who has won over 2 miles and this year has run over 16f 20f and 12f in her 3 runs. She has solid Group 1 form.
All the older winners of this race (five) were up in distance by at least 2 furlongs from previous runs.
The only 5yo winner Sweet Song came into this race with a Group 3 win in its last run.
All the 3yo wiiners (11 since it came open to 4yo and above) had won a race in current season.
This stat may exclude Presbyterian Nun from the win bet but she may improve for the 3fur extra in distance like 8 of the past winners.
GRAVITATION comes here as a first season 3yo and only one 3yo winner since the race became open to older horses was a first season runner. Also Gravitation is not going up in distance for this race having ran 3rd in Royal Ascot Vase over 2 miles.
Interesting that Book of Bedtime also ran 3rd in Vase and was the only first season
3yo runner to win. Also both ran at Goodwood prior to this.
Gull Wing was entered for the race last year and had then run in Galtres Stakes which is a key race. She has run well in her two races over 14fur but ran poorly last time out.
RESULT
ALLEGRETTO 1st 7/4 fav (easy winner)
1.30 2yo Conditions race 7FThis was posted on Betfair Forum just prior to race
Difficult to get a line on this race regarding stats.
No single run winner this year (3 from 9 qualifiers)
Winner LTO with two runs 1 from 4 qualifiers (Midnight Cruiser)
looking at Weights gives another prespective
9-2 4 wins from 9 AND 5 seconds (Courageous)
9-0 0 from 3 (midnight Cruiser)
8-12 3 from 7 (Chief Red Cloud & Crackdown)
8-9 1 from 6 (Bigalos Star & Secrecy)
8-7 0-1 (Yorksters Girl)
On the weight basis its Courageous each way.
However one of the FTO runners may win.
RESULT
SECRECY 1st 12/1
COURAGEOUS 2nd 16/1 (5.6 for place)
TIPSTERS or SYSTEM
I gave up tipsters several years ago.
It all started for me as a lad of 16 when my Dad and his mates subsrcibed to a service that gave two tips on Saturday and one for Monday.
The Monday tip was invariably a non runner though.
The first three weeks of this service provided nearly all tips as winners.
I can't recall all of them but i do remember Duncan Keith riding two of Nightingale's to win at 5/2 and 11/4.
Unfortunately after three weeks the winning streak ended and all lost after.
Following this limited success I signed up to a few myself and whilst working in Liverpool received a telegram to home address which Dad passed on by phone to work.
Can't remember name but it was 4/6 and that was the only winner from six telegrams.
Tried A Scotsman (no name for legal reasons) for a while but found it to be off putting when his tips clashed with mine on two occasions and mine won.
On the subject of this particular guy I knew a chap who did the chat on one of his services.
It started when my Son-in-Laws brother left the Army (Officer) and invested part of his pay off into a tipping line service under the Scotsmans banner. (He had five or six services at that time).
I can't exactly recall the title but it was something like Workrider or Stablelad.
The investor got his Dad to do the voice for the line and Scotsman would ring him daily normally with two tips for the next day. The telephone message had to be received between 2 and 3 o'clock for the bloke to put the message on the line at 4pm.
He was told to spread out the chat around the tips to increase the call time.
This was the bit he didn't like, as he was not a racing follower, and had recently retired from R.A.F.
I visited him at home one day and he was a bit anxious as he was awaiting a call. In the end he rang the Scotsman who told him to pick two horses himself and put them on the line. Apparently this happened occasionally.
It makes you wonder how many tipsters operate like that.
It is common sense that no person can receive substantial information on a daily basis but these phone lines are on daily service.
Recently I have made aquantance with a chap who uses tipsters. He told me that he uses three such services. Again no names but one asks odds to £50 for each selection.
My aquantance reckons he has sussed this one out. If he gave a tip on say Monday and it lost then he would give another next day and so on until it won. He rang the office and spoke to the staff about the matter. He asked to be told only specific horses with winning chance and not the desperate follow ups chasing losses until a winner.
He also used two Newmarket tipsters - old names that have been tipsters for years and I can recall from 20 years ago.
My aquantance reckons he makes a profit by backing a level stake. I can believe that because he has not been a lifelong gambler and only took this up 2 years ago to try and top up his pension. He doesn't study form or select his own horses.
He came around for a meal last week and was surprised at the amount of work that I put into horse racing. I showed him my office, my two four drawer filing cabinets of data and my laptop databases.
We agreed for a week or two that he would text me the tips and I would run them against my systems. I don't think he provided all the tips though. Just the better ones in his opinion, I suspect.
This is how it worked out so far.
Sixties Icon - Agreed WON 2/1 fav
Greensward - Agreed WON Evs fav
Waffle - No Opinion 2ND 9/4 Jt fav
Berry Baby - Disagreed Lost 3/1 fav
(He went on holiday York week but never missed much)
Murhee - No Opinion Lost 8/1
Adorn - No Opinion WON 5/6 fav
Cave Lion - Disagreed 3rd 11/10 fav
Premio Loco - Agreed WON 2/1 fav
Hadron Collier - Disagreed Lost 3/1 fav
It is noted that all bar one of the selections was favourite in the race.
All tips were subject, on my part, of Trainer analysis in relation to Race Type, Grade & Course stats plus stable hints.
The Agreed meant that there was a good chance of a win based upon analysis results.
The Disagreed meant that win strike rate was low or none existent.
For instance when did John Gosden have an Apprentice race winner. How many long distance winners does Hannon have?
No Opinion meant that there was insuffient data (Trainer Lanigan is new on scene and Adorn was First Time out - although Noseda's 2yo fills strike rate is better in September than any other month)
What does this all prove?
Well certainly most of the tips are favourites.
My aquantance reckons that the win strike rate of his tips is 4 from 10 (40%) with an average S.P. of 5/2.
The win ratio here is 4 from 9 (44%) with an average win S.P. of 6/4
At least the services did provide some winners.
The most interesting thing from my perspective is that teamwork has reduced the losses in terms of the "Disagreed" runners (all lost) and all "Agreed" runners won.
UPDATE on tips
Myanmar - Agreed WON 11/4fav
Killena Boy - Disagreed LOST
Regal Veil - Disagreed LOST
Espiritu - Disgreed 4th 7/2 3rd fav
Quotation - Disagreed 4th drifted 9/4 fav to 4/1 2nd fav
Bankable - No Opinion 2nd 8/13 fav
up to Sunday 14/9/08
It is a Theory that One Person or One System cannot work alone to achieve best results (we all think we can though), but put other factors together such as a system or two, race analysis, speed ratings, form ratings, statistics, trainer trends and you might have a superiority in terms of winners or losers (for layers).
A crime is solved by a number of factors - witnesses (race watchers?), victims account (going analysis?), scenes of crime evidence (speed ratings?), DNA (trainer trends?), interview technique (form analysis?) , offenders profile (breeding factors), offenders admission (tips) - but the latter is very rare!
TRD
It all started for me as a lad of 16 when my Dad and his mates subsrcibed to a service that gave two tips on Saturday and one for Monday.
The Monday tip was invariably a non runner though.
The first three weeks of this service provided nearly all tips as winners.
I can't recall all of them but i do remember Duncan Keith riding two of Nightingale's to win at 5/2 and 11/4.
Unfortunately after three weeks the winning streak ended and all lost after.
Following this limited success I signed up to a few myself and whilst working in Liverpool received a telegram to home address which Dad passed on by phone to work.
Can't remember name but it was 4/6 and that was the only winner from six telegrams.
Tried A Scotsman (no name for legal reasons) for a while but found it to be off putting when his tips clashed with mine on two occasions and mine won.
On the subject of this particular guy I knew a chap who did the chat on one of his services.
It started when my Son-in-Laws brother left the Army (Officer) and invested part of his pay off into a tipping line service under the Scotsmans banner. (He had five or six services at that time).
I can't exactly recall the title but it was something like Workrider or Stablelad.
The investor got his Dad to do the voice for the line and Scotsman would ring him daily normally with two tips for the next day. The telephone message had to be received between 2 and 3 o'clock for the bloke to put the message on the line at 4pm.
He was told to spread out the chat around the tips to increase the call time.
This was the bit he didn't like, as he was not a racing follower, and had recently retired from R.A.F.
I visited him at home one day and he was a bit anxious as he was awaiting a call. In the end he rang the Scotsman who told him to pick two horses himself and put them on the line. Apparently this happened occasionally.
It makes you wonder how many tipsters operate like that.
It is common sense that no person can receive substantial information on a daily basis but these phone lines are on daily service.
Recently I have made aquantance with a chap who uses tipsters. He told me that he uses three such services. Again no names but one asks odds to £50 for each selection.
My aquantance reckons he has sussed this one out. If he gave a tip on say Monday and it lost then he would give another next day and so on until it won. He rang the office and spoke to the staff about the matter. He asked to be told only specific horses with winning chance and not the desperate follow ups chasing losses until a winner.
He also used two Newmarket tipsters - old names that have been tipsters for years and I can recall from 20 years ago.
My aquantance reckons he makes a profit by backing a level stake. I can believe that because he has not been a lifelong gambler and only took this up 2 years ago to try and top up his pension. He doesn't study form or select his own horses.
He came around for a meal last week and was surprised at the amount of work that I put into horse racing. I showed him my office, my two four drawer filing cabinets of data and my laptop databases.
We agreed for a week or two that he would text me the tips and I would run them against my systems. I don't think he provided all the tips though. Just the better ones in his opinion, I suspect.
This is how it worked out so far.
Sixties Icon - Agreed WON 2/1 fav
Greensward - Agreed WON Evs fav
Waffle - No Opinion 2ND 9/4 Jt fav
Berry Baby - Disagreed Lost 3/1 fav
(He went on holiday York week but never missed much)
Murhee - No Opinion Lost 8/1
Adorn - No Opinion WON 5/6 fav
Cave Lion - Disagreed 3rd 11/10 fav
Premio Loco - Agreed WON 2/1 fav
Hadron Collier - Disagreed Lost 3/1 fav
It is noted that all bar one of the selections was favourite in the race.
All tips were subject, on my part, of Trainer analysis in relation to Race Type, Grade & Course stats plus stable hints.
The Agreed meant that there was a good chance of a win based upon analysis results.
The Disagreed meant that win strike rate was low or none existent.
For instance when did John Gosden have an Apprentice race winner. How many long distance winners does Hannon have?
No Opinion meant that there was insuffient data (Trainer Lanigan is new on scene and Adorn was First Time out - although Noseda's 2yo fills strike rate is better in September than any other month)
What does this all prove?
Well certainly most of the tips are favourites.
My aquantance reckons that the win strike rate of his tips is 4 from 10 (40%) with an average S.P. of 5/2.
The win ratio here is 4 from 9 (44%) with an average win S.P. of 6/4
At least the services did provide some winners.
The most interesting thing from my perspective is that teamwork has reduced the losses in terms of the "Disagreed" runners (all lost) and all "Agreed" runners won.
UPDATE on tips
Myanmar - Agreed WON 11/4fav
Killena Boy - Disagreed LOST
Regal Veil - Disagreed LOST
Espiritu - Disgreed 4th 7/2 3rd fav
Quotation - Disagreed 4th drifted 9/4 fav to 4/1 2nd fav
Bankable - No Opinion 2nd 8/13 fav
up to Sunday 14/9/08
It is a Theory that One Person or One System cannot work alone to achieve best results (we all think we can though), but put other factors together such as a system or two, race analysis, speed ratings, form ratings, statistics, trainer trends and you might have a superiority in terms of winners or losers (for layers).
A crime is solved by a number of factors - witnesses (race watchers?), victims account (going analysis?), scenes of crime evidence (speed ratings?), DNA (trainer trends?), interview technique (form analysis?) , offenders profile (breeding factors), offenders admission (tips) - but the latter is very rare!
TRD
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