1000 Guineas

If you go back to last years post on this race it would be noticed that I had a dabble Ante Post on Noseda runner. Not wishing to make that mistake again I have waited until after the trials this year.
Bear in mind that the next forefeit stage is April 22nd and final decs (plus any supplementary entries is on April 28th.

The last declaration stage and remarks about remaining entries
The remarks are based upon research of previous 1000 gns races from 1982.
Key Races include Royal Ascot, Cherry Hinton, Princess Margaret, Lowther, Cheveley, Lowther, May Hill, Ascot Mile, Moyglare, Rockfel, Marcel and Nmkt, Nwby and French / Irish 3yo trials.
The Prestige is ignored as it is a bogey race for gns similar also Oh So Sharp - which has only produced WINCE to win gns. The race was run over the July course that year.


Will discuss the Fred Darling trial first and then add to it as we go along.

Some interesting stats about the winners of Fred Darling
18 prev winners ran in Guineas since 1982 (26 yrs)
4 won and 3 obtained a place.

The 4 gns winners were trained by J Dunlop (2) and H Cecil (2)
3 of those winners had won a Group 1 race over 8f

Dual or more winners who have won at courses Ascot and /or Newbury do well in Guineas but Nmkt winners do not.

Muthabara meets part of the criteria with her Newbury wins but did not contest group level as 2yo .
Mahogany in 1984 had similar form lines and ran unplaced in gns.

The fact that Muthabara had what was a very short season as a 2yo does not really detract from her chance as 8 previous gns winners (from 1982) ran only over a two month period as 2yo.

Looking at the prev winners who had their first outing in month of June (like Muthabara) they all contested up to late Sept or October AND all ran in group races with 3 of the 4 qualifiers wiining a G1 or G2 over 8fur.

Muthabara was not afforded the chance as she finished her season in July winning a listed race - which is more than Wince did in 1999 who only won a B grade.

Dunlop has won the Darling Stakes 6 times since 1990 (including Muthabara) and 3 that went into run in gns finished 112. All three had won a group 1 over 8f but Aqaarid only had two runs as a 2yo was the one who finished 2nd.

If Dunlop runs Muthabara in gns we must heed his confidence in the filly but I fear the Darling was a bit weak this year as only Lady Deauville (3rd) and Nahood, who ran poorly passed the real qualifications for the race.


FRANCESCA D'GORGIO
Royal Ascot, and Cherry Hinton runner. The Queen Mary has produced Cape Verdi (1998) and Attraction (2004) as gns winners. The Cherry Hinton has produced 3 winners.
To figure in gns the Cherry Hinton runner must have finished in first four placings AND ran placed in another KEY RACE although at least 17 other previous gns runners had these qualifications and were unplaced.
"Francesca" does not come near form lines of these key races.

HALFWAY TO HEAVEN
Ran all her three races at Leopardstown. The only winner to do that was Las Meninas
(1994)who won a listed race on her first start and followed with a 2nd in group1.
Virginia Waters was the only winner in last 26 yrs to come from the Leop g3 trial (which she won) and also ran in g3 race on her first run. Both those fillies were well though of by stable to run in pattern races on first run. "Heaven" does not match that level of form. The O'Brien stable has won gns twice (98 & 2005) but may run four in race this year. They ran three in 2002 without a placing.

INFALLIBLE
No Gns winner in the last 26 yrs has come into the race with just one run as 2yo.
At least thirteen have tried it.
Petrushka 3rd 6/4fav, Sonic Lady 3rd 6/4fav, and Heart of Joy 2nd 4/1 all had similar form lines to Infallible by winning their only run as 2yo and winning 3yo Nell Gwyn so you could expect her to be whereabouts in the finish.
The Nell Gwyn race winner has produced 3 gns winners and 6 places in 26 yrs, however the winners had a 2nd G1 (6f), winner of G1 (8f) and winner G2 (7f) to their respective CV's.
Infallible would be the first gns winner to have her first race as late as November. This cannot be counted as a negative because there is no comparison to measure against but Petrushka & Heart of Joy ran in October.
Infallible has won both her races at NMKT and whilst the two wins at NMKT are a a good guide (gns placing for such fillies 13201) all these runners had also run elsewhere AND had KEY RACE form. The doubt about Infallible is her experience.

KITTY MATCHAM
Rockfel winner has produced 4gns winners from 14 qualifiers since 1982.
Kitty was a late developer and all gns winners, except Speciosa, won on their first or second start.

LADY DEAUVILLE
Not run in Key Races but has twice finished close to Muthabara. Firstly as 2yo in Sandown Listed and latterley in Fred Darling trial. Not sure if this makes her look good or weakens Muthabara's form?

LAURELDEAN GALE
Won maiden at Nmkt and ended season with unplaced run in Marcel. The only unplaced runner to do well in gns was Confidential Lady (2nd) 2006. Appears held by Mad About You who finished 3rd in Marcel.

LUSH LASHES
Won the Goffs Million race first time out. Hard to evaluate but she ran poorly in a
3yo trial race

MAX ONE TWO THREE
Reasonable 2yo form but doubts whether up to Gns class.

MUTHABARA
Discussed above. Dave Bellingham (Split Second) has doubts about her speed figures.
Also lines of form with Lady Deauville are questionable.

NAHOOD
Won Lowtger and Unplaced Cherry Hinton.
The Lowther winner has won 3 gns in last 26yrs BUT all three were placed at Group 1 level AND won another race as 2yo. Nahhod does not fit that requirement and ran a poor gns trial.

NATAGORA
This one cropped up a lot of times during analysis of the key races. The stats guys are saying only 1 French winner since 1992 but there were 4 winners since 1982 AND if you look at the past winners who won FRENCH races then you will come up with 7 gns winners from 12 qualifiers and add a 2nd and 3rd placing makes you take notice of this one.
She mirrors Ravinella the winner 1988 with her 5furlong G3 win and her 7f Listed win in French 3yo trial race, BUT is much better than Ravinella with her G2 and G1 wins over 6furlongs.
Natagora won Cheveley (produced 8 gns winners in last 26 yrs) and Cheveley winners have produced 3 gns winners and 3 places from 15 qualifiers. All the 3 winners won or were placed in gns trial as 3yo. The Maison Listed race that Natagora won features well in the stats with 4 winners and the 2nd & 3rd in 2003 race. The trainer ran Six Perfections to finish 2nd in 2003.

NIJOOM DUBAI
Inconspicious start to her career with placings in maidens at Newbury & Folkestone but stepped up at Royal Ascot to win G3 Albany which doesn't feature in Key Races. Also had a short season as 2yo ending June 22nd. The only short season winners were Las Meninas and Attraction.

PSALM
Still a maiden.

ROYAL CONFIDENCE
Rockfel place but 17 Rockfel placings over the 26 years have only produced one 2nd and one third in gns.

SAOIRSE ABU
Won Group 1 at Currah over 7 fur and the Moyglare g1 over 6f which matches Ma Biche (1993 winner) Also finished 3rd in Ascot mile so has ran well in the Key Races. The Ascot Mile winners have produced 2 gns winners BUT they won on tracks at NMKT & NWBY which feature well amongst previous gns winners. Also "ABU" has run 9 races which would be more than any gns winner since 1982 and possibly previous yrs before that date.

SAVETHISDANCEFORME
Has a listed win over 8fur but the Marcel 4th in G1 is the best form.
The Marcel has produced 7 gns winners (since 1982) but 5 of those WON the Marcel.

SPACIOUS
Won the May Hill and 6 previous May Hill winners ran in gns resulting in 1st 2nd and 3rd placings (other three unplaced). Spacious however has the lowest number of runs of all previous qualifiers and the same level on inexperience as Infallible is the concern.
She is the only May Hill winner not to have run since and it was quite an acheivement to win on only her second run. She is the best of the 8fur runners in this gns. Similar form to Kazzia (2002) and cannot be ruled out.

SPINNING LUCY
Took a long time to win her maiden and was 8 lengths behind Infallible in this yrs trial- which was her first group race after 6 runs.

OTHER FACTS
15 of the last 26 winners won their first group race
5 were second in their first group race
3 were 3rd in their first group race
1 was 4th in first group race.
That makes a total of 24 from the 26 winners that either won or were placed in their first group race run. None of this applies to first group race as 3yo (Infallible).
The two exceptions were WINCE 1999 when the race was run on the July course and Virginia Waters 2005 who ran her first run unplaced in Group 3. Both the latter won their first Group race in the 3yo trials (Leop g3 and Newbury g3)

The qualifiers this year (positive) are
Natagora, Muthabara, Spacious, Francesca D'Gorgio, Saoirse Abu, Savethisdanceforme, Lady Deauville, Laureldean Gale, Nijoom Dubai.

Both Spacious and Natagora went to group level after their first outing and both won their first group run.

NUMBER OF RUNS

The cut off figure for number of runs appears to be 7 prior to Guineas. No winner since 1982 has had more than 7 runs. There have been three winners with seven runs, Pebbles, Wince and Speciosa but interestingly ALL won their 3yo trial.

This year there are 6 potential contesters in the race who have had 7 or more runs and only Natagora has won her trail BUT she has had 8 runs.

The lowest number of runs to win is two runs (as a 2yo) and there have been at least 9 runners that have come to this race with form figures 11- and only two have won. There were 3 of those that had managed to win a group race and invlude the two winners Musical Bliss and Kazzia.

This year only Spacious mirrors the 2 win runs as 2yo with a Group win.

Four past winners since 1982 have won gns with 3 runs. All had at 2 runs at Group level and had either won or been placed in Group race(s). All won first run.

This year Muthabara, Halfway to Heaven, Max One Two Three and Laureldean Gale have had 3 runs but only Laureldean Gale has had the two group runs.

Muthabara just misses out here with her listed win and group 3 win.
Checking the stats there is only 1 previous winner (Virginia Waters) who won the gns with a Listed and Group 3 win AND that never ran at higher Group level. (At least 16 ran with similar qualification)

Seven past winners in last 26yrs had 4 runs and none were unplaced. There is no need to go further here because Nahood, Francesca D’Gorgio and Nijoom Dubai all have unplaced runs.

The best run – win figure for previous gns winner is 5 runs and eight winners have won with that number of runs. Five of those either won at G1 or G2 level and two were 2nd in a Group 1. The only exception was Virginia Waters who won G3 trial.

Kitty Matcham is only qualifier this year with her G2 win

Ma Biche 1983 was the only previous winner to have 6 runs. No qualifier this year.

RACE DISTANCES
12 previous winners over last 26yrs had run at distance of 8 furlongs and 9 of those won at the distance whilst the other 3 had won over 7 furlongs.
Spacious and Savethisdanceforme have run and won over 8 furlongs. (9 winners)

Saoirse Abu and Lush Lashes have run over 8f and won at 7f. (3 winners)

7 previous winners had run no further than 7 furlongs and won at that distance. Only Lahan (2000) had all her races at 7f the remainder running at 5 and 6 furlongs and only Ravinella (1988) won at 5 furlongs and ran as high as 7 f.
That is not to confuse with the other two guineas winners who had won over 5 furlongs On the House (1982) and Attraction (2004) who had won at 6 fur as their maximum.

Infallible, Halfway to Heaven and Muthabara will try to emulate Lahan (1 winner)

Seven past gns winners won at 6f as their maximum win distance
Laureldean Gale has won at 6f but also ran at 8f and no previous winner in past 26yrs has done this although at least three have tried.
Kitty Matcham will attempt to emulate Musical Bliss and Sayyedati who won at 5f and 7f. (2 winners)

Natagora who has won at 5,6 and 7 fur will attempt to emulate Pebbles, Ravinella and Wince. (3 winners)

COURSE RUNS
There have been 12 winners who have previously won at Newmarket. Six attempt this year but only Natagora, Infallible and Kitty Matcham have won a Group Race which all 12 winners did. Ten of the 12 won their first group race so only Natagora and Infallible go through on that score.

There have been 6 winners who won at Newbury (and not Newmarket) and Muthabara and Lady Deauville meet that criteria.

The remaining past winners (who didn’t win at Nmkt or Newby) either won in France(4) Ireland (2) or Dubai (1) which only leaves two Sleepytime and Ameerat who only won their maidens over 7f at Sandown & Goodwood.

CONCLUSIONS
NATAGORA to win and overcome her one possible negative (8 runs)
Danger: SPACIOUS
Best Place Prospect; INFALLIBLE
Best Outsider; KITTY MATCHAM
TRD

Just one more stat.
GOING
13 past winners won 100% of their previous races on the same going as guineas day.
6 winners won 50%
1 winner won 33%
4 winners had not won on going (all0-1 run)
2 winners had not run on going

Todays - based upon good going
100%
Infallible
Muthabara
Natagora
Kitty Matchem

50%
Nahood
Saoirse Abu
Savethisdanceforme

40%
Spinning Lucy

Not won on good
Francesca D Gorgio
Lady Deauville
Laurendean Gale

Not run on Good
Max One Two Three
Lush Lashes
Spacious

HEXHAM BUMPER

Ok it's back to the bumpers today.
The mares race at Sedgefield is left alone as I am off on one of our house-sitting jaunts for a few days.

The Hexham race is short of any form and would likely be dismissed by most from a betting view. However J Johnson has Letterpress in this today. He has had a dismal season as far as bumpers are concerned with no winners from 10 races.
In 2006 he won with 3 first time out runners and 2007 7 out of his 8 winners were FTO.

Under my other associated system he shows 3 wins from 3 qualifiers with Letterpress today and that is the selection. Currently around the 2/1 mark I expect a lower price based on previous data.

TRD
RESULT
1st
winner backed from 20/1 - a good old fashioned gamble.
Unp Letterpress 5/2 fav
I see J Johnsons poor luck in these races this year continues. Apologies.
Loss £100

AYR BUMPER 19/4/2008

Comparison with all Ayr Open Bumper Races back to 1988 (less 6 still to do)

FTO
4yo 0 fom 5 winner / races
5yo 7 from 9
6yo 0 from 1
The concensus is 5yo first time out have a preety good record here in April
Five qualifiers today

Placed on first and only run
4yo 0 from 3
5yo 0 from 1
6yo 0 from 1
Poor record in this area on few stats though.
There are 4 qualifiers including favourite Conflictofinterest.

Placed LTO (more than one run but not a win)
4yo 2 from 4
5yo 0 from 1
6yo 0 from 3
Not much to go on and only 3 qualifiers today

Winner of previous bumper that was not placed on last run
4yo 1 from 5
5yo 4 from 4
6yo 1 from 2
Clearly the 5yo have best record
China gold and Knockara Beau are the qualifiers

Winner of a previous bumper that was placed on last run
4yo 1 from 1
5yo 0 from 2
6yo 1 from 2
two qualifiers today Teenage idol and Lie Forrit

One unplaced run has provided 3 winners from 5 races but there is no qualifier today.

SUMMARY
China Gold and Knockara Beau have the best stats based on previous races.
The 4yo's do not account for many of the past winners (April months)4 wins from 18 races.
The 5yo's hold sway in this area with a total of 13 wins from 21 races
The 6yo's have had 3 winners from 10 races but are usually low in entries compared to other age groups.
The red hot fav Conflictofinterest will be difficult to beat here and is strongly fancied according to stable hints. Nicholls has 50% record (10 qualifiers) in this area and 1 from 1 at Ayr.
Clearly not a Lay but there is better value to be had with the previous winners (five runners).
Also wary of N Richards three runners - all 5yo's first time out.

RESULT.
1st Conflictofinterest 6/4 fav
2nd Knockara Beau 14/1
3rd China Girl 3/1

REVIEW
Not much of a surprise here with the fav - who ran only race in listed company, winning.
The 5yo winners last time out filled the minor places.
Slight loss for me as I shied of the winner on basis of value and went for the 2nd and 3rd but unfortunately not for place bets.
Bet £50 split between the two.

NEWBURY FILLIES RACES 18/4/2008

Betfair posting
Pinza 18 Apr 13:37


1.40 Montbretia

LAY Elmaleeha

3.50Changing Skies

LAY Bellotto

4.25 Musical Bar

LAY Profitabitly

Left the middle race alone due to value

Back Your Odds Your Stake YourProfit
Template: MBE Montbretia 7 £25.00 £150.00

Lay Backer's Odds Backer's Stake Payout Liability
Template: MLE Elmaleeha 3.3 £50.00 £165.00£115.00
Template: MLE 3.5 £100.00 £350.00£250.00

Profit £125.00


Back YourOdds YourStake YourProfit

Musical Bar 8.13 £181.91 £1,296.70
£181.91

Results
Selections 2nd 2nd Winner
Lays Unpl Unpl Unpl

NEWMARKET APRIL MEETING 2008

3yo FREE HCPA few in here that had their first run last April - None of the last 26 winners had such an early start.
Horses who won their Maiden over 5 FUR as 2yo have only won 3 of past 26 years races.

There are negatives against most of the runners here today.
Fat Boy appears the best of C-Hyam three runners but has to be a Lay at his price.

Berbice. (Hannon has best record in this race) was entered to run in Masaka stakes at Kempton. She came out quite good in the stats for that race. Value price today.

Stimulation. Meets most of the stats requirements for this. Favs chance but not value at 2/1 or less.

Philario. Another that figures fairly well in previous winner stats and a value price.

Exclamation. The unexposed horse here who did not run after his valuable sales race win in August. B Meehan has done quite well with his few listed 3yo hcp runners

RESULT
1st Stimulation 15/8 fav
2nd Fat Boy 5/1
3rd royal Confidence 12/1

Lay Backer's Odds Backer's Stake
Fat Boy 6.6 £25.00 £165.00£140.00
Template: MLE 7 £9.00 £63.00£54.00

Back Your Odds Your Stake YourProfit
Template: MBE Stimulation 3.5 £50.00 £125.00
Template: MBE 4 £50.00 £150.00
Berbice 17.96 £45.00 £763.06
Template: MBE Philario 19.62 £85.00 £1,582.07

PHEW! Just got away with the photo finish

KEMPTON MASAKA FILLS STAKES 12/4/2008

This race has been run as listed since 1994 but on AW for last two years.

(1)A total of 30 runners in Masaka Stakes since 1994 had contested a handicap race. Of these 15 had actually won a handicap at either 2 or 3yo. None of these won the Masaka race. The only winner was in 1991 that actually ran 2nd in C grade handicap over 6 furlongs.
There have been 9 runners who have ran in a handicap and Group race as 2yo's - none won and only two were placed in Masaka.

(2)Since 1994 when the Masaka attained Listed status there has only been one winner that was still a maiden. That was placed in all her three maiden runs as 2yo including 2nd in listed event.

(3)Most winners (10-14) had their maiden win in first 3 runs and ran final race in October (11-14)

(4)All bar 2 winners contested a Pattern race, the exceptions being Vista Bella 2005 who never ran as 2yo and won her only race - 7f AW win in February. Calypso Grant 1997 had maiden form figures 221 ending with a win over 8f.

(5) Since change to AW surface both winners ran in Dubai over winter

Taking all these into account plus other factors including last run placing / class comparisons Love of Dubai is the selection.

RESULT
1st Jazz Jam 5/1.

REVIEW
A poor run from selection and never really looked like winning but was backed to fav.
Amazing that someone matched my lay off bet at 11/10 in running.
The winner Jazz Jam did not win until 4th attempt as 2yo and the win WAS in Hcp company. Reaaly against the trends as 3 previous runners had won hcp as their maiden win (2 finished 2nd in this race).

Don't expect much of the winner in this race though. Only 4 past winners have won a subsequent race. Another Kempton or goodwood listed in April -May is the best to hope for on past results.

TOWCESTER BUMPER 10/4/2008

Two runners in this race were earmarked for their next run.

Alaminos was withdrawn from a Plumpton maiden race in February.
Overtly Blue finished 2nd when its more fancied stablemate was unplaced in maiden at Kempton in February

The stats seem equally divided between both runners today.
4yo FTO runners at this track have a win rate 45% of these races but April is a better month for the performance.

Pipe and Henderson do not run many here and Pipes (Father & son) win rate is slightly better.
Henrietta Knight does NOT do well with her FTO runners here in bumpers.

Runners placed 2nd on their previous run have a 50% strike rate for 5 & 6yo's.
Henderson won here with Full Nelson (Nov 2000) who came here with almost exact form figures.

Overtly Blue is the better backed today 5/2 from 5/1
Alaminos around 7/1

RESULT
1st Arturo Uno 9/2
2nd Alaminos 15/2
3rd Quannopowitt 12/1
Unp Overtly Blue 4/1 fav

REVIEW
Done again. Thats the third 2nd this week for me.
Alaminos was backed to win a grand at prices averaging 9/1 and laid off at 3/1 and 2/1 in running, but only covered the bet.
Also had a place bet to win 125.
Overtly Blue ran poorly and the 200 on that was lost. So a net loss of £75.
Alaminos looked all over the winner approaching final furlong until Arturo collared him close home.
N Henderson definitely does not do Towcester - only had 15 runners here since 1995 and 3 winners with 8 out of first three.
Henrietta Knight's runner (unpl) was gambled from 20's into 8/1 as as stated she does not do FTO winners here.

LUDLOW BUMPER 9/4/08

Still have 63 races to input for Ludlow

N Henderson does well here with his FTO runners but not with his WLTO.
Henritta Knight also does well with her FTO runners.

Have gone for both FTO mentioned and a small lay to cover bet.
Not much time spent on this though

Came back early from shopping with my wife (rare outing) so had a good look since.

I read when Front of House last ran that when Mr Magnier rides they are a steering job. It was when it won.
However today?
Nicky does not do that well with his bumpers that won FTO on their next run. By that I mean geldings - (because he is an excellent trainer of the Mares equivalent in these NHFlat races.)

Overall from 19 such races where he ran a WLTO1 (winner last time out 1st run) he has had 4 winners in Open NHFlat races (non maiden, none mares races & not pattern races)
His 6yo ratio however is better with 1 win from 4 runners (Database not complete but contains 1702 of this type of race with distance 16f+)

N Henderson has two in race today
Have found some races where he ran two in same race
Valerio (FTO) 7/1 beat Alexandra Nevsky (WLTO) 11/4 fav 22/2/2001
Ships Hill 7/1 2nd beat Wantage road 6/5 fav (both FTO) 25/3/06
Overtly Blue 14/1 2nd beat Thanks for That 13/8 fav 8/2/08
Front of The House 4/6 beat Bonikos 2nd 14/1 (both FTO) 2/3/08

Based upon these stats IMO the fav may well be a lay today.
Strangely enough when attempting to lay near midnight at 11/10 the layers suddenly rushed in and pushed the price out to 11/8.

Henderson ( 6 from 10 at Ludlow) and Henrietta Knight (6 from 14 at Ludlow) have good records for FTO runners in this type of race.
Nigel Twiston Davies has 2 from 4 here and does quite well with his FTO runners this month but his 4yo's do much better in Autumn.
P Hobbs 1 from 4 and D Pipe 0 from 5 do not seem so successful here.

Make of this what you will but laying the fav will probably keep you on pins through the race as only one of the 4 was unplaced.

TRD 15.50pm

RESULT
1st Front of the House 11/10 fav
2nd Millers Dawn 20/1
3rd Flying Squad 13/2
withdrawn Quarl Ego (N Henderson)
The Treacle Eater (P Hobbs)

REVIEWThe withdrawal of Hendersons FTO runner was quite late - about 10 mins prior to start time.
This left me with the £25 win bet on Millers Dawn (To win 1000 at 40/1 average)
and a £50 lay bet on winner at 2.2
The winner won well and held the 2nd quite comfortably on run in.
Had a 2/1 lay bet on Millars for 100 but not taken unfortunately.

PLUMPTON BUMPER 7/4/2008

Not a lot of depth in this Maiden here today.
Just two runners placed last run.
Mrs Wadhams runner Dusty Springheeled was 3rd on only run 37 days ago and looks to stay favourite. Was put in at odds on on forecast but trading nearer 2/1 at present.
It was at Newbury in class 5 Open event and the mare ran really well.
RP Comment
Dusty Springheeled
in rear, headway over 3f out, ridden over 2f out, stayed on well final furlong, going on close home

It may take a useful one to beat her.

G L Moore has won here twice with FTO runners though so his Wade Farm Billy enters calculations.

T Vaughan is having a good first year as trainer in these events. He runs Bazing Run.

All three mentioned are the first 3 in betting currently unfortunately so there is little value.

With a fair bit of research into Plumpton NHF races, especially at runners that were placed on last run there are question marks against the favourite.

Horses that were placed on only run (2,3 or 4) that run here do not fare well unless they have had a long break (100 or more days).

My database is not comprehensive but does contain every winner and most of "significant" runners in the Plumpton races.
I have a list of 8 runners that were placed on first run and it only contains two placed horses. It includes 4 beaten favs.

On this basis I nominate a lay bet for Dusty Springheeled.
That maybe supported by the poor run of Moleskin the other day, who finished 2nd in front of "Dusty". Vic Dartnall does really well with his NHF horses and if he couldn't do anything with Moleskin then the form of the Newbury race may be suspect.

As for the winner I have had £25 waiting on Wade Farm Billy since 10.58am today and only £3 has been taken so far which proves the layers are shying of it.

I am also wary of the other first time out runners (4 of them plus "Billy")

TRD 15.21pm

RACE STATS
FTO runners have the call based on stats at Plumpton.
There have been 20 Maiden NHF races run here.
FTO runners have won 9

If you take the pre Autumn races (Feb to May months)
then the percentage is higher with 7 from 9 races.

Today there are 5 FTO runners in the race.
The other 2 races were won by placed horses LTO (with more than 1 run)

Generally runners coming back from break (100+days) that have been placed have the best win ratio. Does not apply today.

TRD 16.35pm

RESULT
1st Celian 16/1
2nd Rebeccas Choice 25/1
3rd Wade Farm Billy 11/4
Fav Dusty Springheeled unplaced 5/2
REVIEW
A bit of a slog on the ground found out the mare Dusty Springheeled.
Winner was a bit of a surprise but rider was one of 3 claiming 7lb.
I did miss the fact that it was coming back from a long break (366 days)but wouldn't have considered it much as not placed on its only run. Looking back at Plumpton stats there have been a couple of winners and seconds that came here after a long break with an unplaced run but nothing as long as a year off course.

BET
Lay Backer's Odds Backer's Stake Payout Liability

Dusty Springheeled 2.83 £145.00 £411.20 £266.20

Back Your Odds Your Stake Your Profit

Wade Farm Billy 4.67 £52.00 £190.49

AINTREE GROUP BUMPER 5/4/2008

The good thing about these races there is plenty of time to study as they are normally the last race.

Had a look at all the Aintree Pattern Races from 1994 and will have them back to 1988 by afternoon.

There are queries to research such as how mares fare against horses - as J Pearce opted to run Dayia here instead of Mares race yesterday- as he says she is better off at weights in this race.

The previous (none mares) pattern winners at Aintree are categorised in four areas of analysis.
1. (6 winners)
(a) 4yo or 5yo that was 1st or 2nd on first run.
(b) Has had at least 2 runs
(c) no more than 2 wins
(d) Ran in last 30 days
Qualifiers are
DAYIA
CAPE TRIBULATION

2. (3 winners)
(a) 4yo or 6yo that won FTO
(b) Had a break since last run - preferably between 66-101 days
(c) Ran last year
(d) Preferably won this year
Qualifiers are
COPPER BLUE
TOUCH OF IRISH

3 (2 winners)
Runners that have had one winning run.
The win rate on this area is only 2 from 8 races though and no 5yo has won from at least 6 qialifiers.
Qualifiers are
EIGHT PALMS
SEEFIN MOUNTAIN

4 (2 wiiners)
Not covered in above categories are
Diamond Sal 2004 6yo
Burn Out 1996 4yo (Jeff Pearce)
They were both 2nd FTO but had not won
No Qualifiers today

You have the bones for possible winner, whichever you fancy, but will update later
TRD 13.04hr

Update
There have been 3 mares that won this race but only Nahla 1994 was a 4yo. It certainly did not have the form equal to Dayia today. Looking at the Mares race yesterday Argento Luna who was beaten 4 lengths into 5th place was 3rd to Dayia in the Sandown listed race. There would have been a slight turn around in weights between the two and if Dayia had run yesterday it would have likely finished 3rd or
4th. Saying that Caroles Legacy improved formwise with Moorlands Teri so one cannot say what improvement these 4yo fillies can make at this time of year.
I would certainly respect Jeff Pearce who has won this race previously.

Six previous winners have come into this race having their last run in a Pattern event ( 1 won and 5 were unplaced) whilst the remaining winners have not run above class E -grade 5; (8 won 2 were 2nd and 2 were 3rd on their last run).

Today the ones that ran their previous race in Pattern company are
Dyia and Take Me There but none ran at Cheltenham which was the normal route.

From 1990 to 1999 this race favoured 4yo's who came here from grade 6 races
There was a break then Theatrical Moment resumed the trend last year.
There have been seven 4yo winners and all were placed or won their first outing.

There have been seven 5yo winners - again all placed on first run and all had won a race.

There have been four 6yo winners - 3 won FTO and other was 2nd. All the 6yo winners had run the previous season.
The race has thrown up 4 winning favourites from 18 runnings - all equal or less than 3/1.

I am not going to put my neck on the line too much but nominate
DAYIA and TOUCH OF IRISH as the better qualifiers.

RESULT
1st Honest John 14/1
2nd Touch of Irish 14/1
3rd Cape Tribulation 11/2 jfavThe winner bucked the trends of this race having had just one run finishing 2nd at Doncaster in a Conditionals race. T Tate did say before that race that they thought he was a good horse but even so an unexpected result here and well backed into 14/1.
Just missed out on Touch of Irish coming second with another qualifier coming 3rd.
Copper Bleu ran really well taking it up 2f out and looking the likely winner at that stage (thankfully someone took my £100 lay at evens).
Still managed to lose £73 on the race with a series of bets on the qualifiers.
Dayia was never mentioned finishing 8th and Jeff Pearce maybe regretting his decision not to run her in the mares race. Both Dayia and "Irish" were the only ones I backed for a place but the heavier bet on Dayia was only offset by the gain on Irish.
The 6yo runners hve a good record in the race with certain criteria applied (WLTO)and that proved successful with Touch of Irish and Copper Bleu (5th) running well.

AINTREE MARES LISTED BUMPER 4/4/2008

The lack of Mares Listed Bumper Races was highlighted in the previous Sandown post.

In this Aintree race - run over the last three years the trainer Alan King has had the winner and two seconds - a remarkable record.
Nicky Henderson however has a very dismal record at Aintree in these bumper races.

Todays race has been won previously by two 4yo's and a 5yo but really 4yo did not have much of a presence when 5yo won.

Generally in the Listed Mares races won by a 4yo (four) the mare has began over a distance short of 2 miles and possibly a 3yo race. The only exception was Dayia who won the Sandown Listed race last month and surprisingly misses this race as trainer said it was better at weights in tomorrows Aintree race.

Todays race has a few runners from that Sandown race - which has provided a few placed mares (especially A King's runners). A King runs Over Sixty but that was beaten at Sandown by his other two runners Dancingwithbubbles (2nd) and Gold Reef (4th) neither of which run today. The only placed runner from the Sandown race is Argento Luna which must be seriously considered for a place here.

The previous winners and majority of placed horses have not been out of first three in their races and mailny won or finished 2nd on last run.

That should rule out Ravello Bay, Over Sixty and the none winners out of calculations.

I feel that the 4yo's will have the race today and will back accordingly but more so for the place.

Bets Place
Argento Luna 3.2 £16.00 £35.20
Divali Princess 18 £16.77 £285.09
18.5 £3.23 £56.53

Back Win Odds YourStake YourProfit
Yonder 5.7 £10.00 £47.00
Caroles Legacy 75 £2.00 £148.00
Divali Princess 75 £2.00 £148.00

REVIEW1st Caroles Legacy 25/1
2nd Divali Princess 40/1
3rd Call Me a Legend
5th Argento Luna
UNPL FAv Yonder

A great result for my place bets and £2 on the winner at 75/1
Alan Kings horses 2nd and 3rd keeping up his fantastic record in this race

LODDINGTON STAKES LEICESTER 3/4/08

This race has been run as a Conditions event since 1993 but the race goes back earlier. The name of the event has been changed due to sponsorship

There have been 14 runnings as a conditions event race.

7 winners ran in group race as 2yo

All but 2 winners had only won 1 previous race.
The exceptions were in 1993 & 2006.
Both those exceptions won a claiming race in addition to their maiden but subsequently were placed in listed events.

13 of the 14 winners won their first race within their first 3 runs. The exception being Angus News 2006 who won his 4th race.

Only 4 of the 14 winners ran in a handicap race (1993 & 2006 were two of the handicap winners)
Also the two winners in 1993 & 2006 had the only double figure outings as 2yo (10 & 11).

5 of the previous winners won first time out as 2yo.(4 of those ran in group race)

Single run winners; Tajasur 4/9fav 2nd (1998) Pax and Polar Ben all failed to win but Patto (1994) won his only race as 3yo on AW in a 4 runner field.

8 winners carried 9-0
1 carried 8-12
2 carried 8-9
1 carried 8-5
4 fillies won and 10 colts/geldings

Favourites 4 from 14 (2 odds on)

Todays race has been cut down considerably from the 5 day entries and further depleted by the withdrawal of Bespoke Boy.
At the 5 day stage Berbice (R Hannon) appeared to stand out from the crowd.
Berbice does not run but has close form links to Oasis Wind.
After comparing previous runs have narrowed it down to
Oasis Wind
Eternal Luck
Irish Pearl

There are questions about each though as nothing is cut and dried this year.
"Oasis" has nor run above B (class 2) level and has ran in a handicap.
The going & CD win are a plus but only 1 previous CD winner (1989) has won.
P Cole is in good form

"Eternal" only ran two races and did not run above E (class 5) level
Only Mukaakkid (1999) won with two runs and was a late runner as 2yo (Oct-Nov) whilst Eternal ran only in June so suspect there must have been some problem.
His win came on GFirm.

"Pearl" Most of the fillies that won had only 1 unplaced run. Pear has had 3. But Lady Domatrix (2002) had similar figures. The going maybe in her favour

Putting this all down does not really inspire much confidence in the race.
The current prices do not inspire a "lay" bet either.

RESULT1st Quiet Elegance 22/1 E Alston (single win run)
2nd Inxile 10/1 D Nicholls (single win run)
3rd Irish Pearl 10/1
Unpl Oasis Wind 8/11 fav

Review
The form guide did not indicate that the previous trends stood out.
This was borne out by the winner, and second, ducking past trends by
proving that single winning runs as 2yo must enter calculations.
On the other hand this was really a weak race this year.
Oasis Wind traded early on around 5/4 but when betting began traded odds on
and ended up 8/11. This was a silly price based upon its form. Also as there
had been previous odds on failures in the race it actuially became a lay bet.

WETHERBY BUMPERS

Having studied all Wetherby Open NHF races have identified that it may not be a
4yo's track.
Certainly not 4yo's carrying a win penalty.
Of the eleven 4yo's that have carried penalties only 5 won. The 4yo runners that won on their only outing have only won 1 race from 5 qualifiers (including Sir Tantallus Hawk yesterday)
4yo's that won on their second run or won more than one race do better but in the latter months (Oct-Nov)

Yesterday Sir Tantallus Hawk (4yo) trained by G Swinbank traded odds on and started at 5/6 fav.
It had won its only race prior this event.
Whilst travelling really well throughout the race and taking the lead "on the bit" with 3 furlongs to run he was run out of it near the finish to end up 5th.

Taking all Maiden and Open races at the course since 1990
4yo winners = 16 (winner last time out won 5)
5yo winners = 24 (winner last time out won 7)
6yo winners = 5 (winner last time out won 3)

In the months March-April there were four 4yo winners. Three won FTO and other was a conditional hands and heels race.
Generally most of the winners in these months are FTO runners or those coming back from lengthy absence having won previously.

2008-04-01
16:57 GB Weth 1st Apr / 16:55 2m NHF / Sir Tantallus Hawk
Lay 1.95 100.00 Won