LANCASHIRE OAKS HAYDOCK July week 1

LANCASHIRE OAKS HAYDOCK (July wk1)

Previous to 1991 was a 3yo only race
Since 1991 there have been 17 runnings (2007 ran at Nmkt).
11 winners were 3yo
6 winners were 4yo

The 3yo winners.
1 had not had an outing as 3yo but won group 1 and group 2 over 8f as 2yo.
2 had run in Oaks (2nd & 6th) both had only won a maiden and had only 3 outings each. Both were favourites.
3 won a mdn last run. (10f, 12f 12f) (maximum 3 runs) Two were trained by Cecil (form 0-51 and -1)
2 won their last 2 runs Rainbow Lake –611 (CD win) Squeak 11-1. Both won 10f Listed race LTO.
The 3 other 3yo winners 1992, 94 & 95 had all run 2nd in one of their 3yo races and were 2yo winners.
(2 had been placed in 11f & 12f group 1 & 2 races the other had been 2nd in 10f listed race)

To summarise all had at least won or 2nd in listed race 10f or longer or were maiden winners over 12f last run – apart from the group 1 winner at 2yo.

TRACK WINS
Featured tracks NWBY, NMKT one of these plus another track account for 3 winners
CHEPSTOW features twice as single win track.
KEMPTON accounted for two wins but is now an AW track.
Plus SALISBURY GOODWOOD & DONCASTER .

The 4yo winners.
Won group 3 this season over distance.
4th in group 2 over distance this year – 2nd in group 1 over distance lat year.
Won group 3 over distance last year.
Not run current season – won 11f listed on last run.
Won listed over distance LTO.
Won mdn over dist LTO but had won 5 NH Flat races from 12 to 16f including listed race.

TRACK wins.

Featured courses are NMKT, NWBY, NOTT, YARM
At least two of these courses appear in every one of the 4yo winners except a Chepstow winner (plus Nwby)

HAYDOCK winners Pongee 4yo & Rainbow Lake 3yo were both CD winners. Another CD winner Ninotchka 3yo finished 3rd.
Four Course only winners failed to win or place.

Other considerations
Only one winner from Ascot on last run (0-123-0-200-0-2-020-000-20-2-000-30.)
Last run in Oaks (0-000-1-0-020-1-0.)
4yo Dist winner - p is for penalty carried (2p-1-0p-1p0-0 trainer won with other runner-0-0p0-00-00-2p1p-0-0-)
5yo plus (0-00-00.)
3yo Dist winner (0-3mwlto-0-30-0-01mwlto0-0wlto-2-3cd-1cdwlto-1mwlto-2wlto md?.) Check Armarama 1993

2yo winners Y Y* Y(Oaks) Y (GR 1 abroad) Y
3yo winners Y* Y* Y (Oaks) Y* Y*
3yo winner not run at 2yo. Y*
4yo winner. Y Y* N N N*(3y)
* won last run
TRD

This years runners applicable stats.(2008)
Lancashire Oaks 2008.

12 declared runners

The best 4yo as regard to stats is Folk Opera.
A lightly raced improver who was a Course & Distance winner last run.
Also has won at Newbury – a track that features highly amongst past winners.
This one has to compare with Pongee who was also a hcp winner with CD also.
One past winner Won listed over distance LTO.

The 3yo contingent is quite strong this year with Oaks and Ribblesdale form.

Clowance is the Oaks representative. Oaks form has resulted in 2 wins and a second in seven runnings.
2 past winners had run in Oaks (2nd & 6th) both had only won a maiden and had only 3 outings each. Both were favourites.

Arthurs Girl (2nd) and Icon Project (4th) are Ribblesdale (alternative Oaks) reps.
Both have just a maiden win in their portfolio but Icon won over Course & Distance.
Ribblesdale 2nd placed runners have finished 03201 in Lancs Oaks and 3rd placed 0030000.
The interesting C&D advantage was the 3rd placed runner in both races.
The Ribblesdale form was reversed in 1992 when 2nd beat the penalty-carrying winner, and is the only year a Ribblesdale runner was successful.

Dress Rehearsal deserves a mention with two wins on last two runs.
2 past winners won their last 2 runs Rainbow Lake –611 (CD win) Squeak 11-1. Both won 10f Listed race LTO.

HAYDOCK winners Pongee 4yo & Rainbow Lake 3yo were both CD winners. Another CD winner Ninotchka 3yo finished 3rd.
Four Course only winners failed to win or place.

The remaining 7 declared runners are discarded from calculations on stats basis.

TRD

Overnight declarations and Clowance is non runner so no Oaks runner this year.
T...form comments
ICON PROJECT (USA) is an attractive filly (in superb shape) who wasn't seen to very best advantage upped in class and may yet do better, travelling easily under a patient ride before being stuck behind horses as the race was taking shape early in the straight, staying on when clear and leaving the impression she'd have finished a couple of lengths closer at least; she's likely to stay 14f if required.

ARTHUR'S GIRL is beginning to progress nicely now, battling back gamely for second, deserving a bit of extra credit considering she got messed around and slightly tightened for room as the winner took over; clearly well suited by 12f and already useful, she's in patient hands and likely to continue to go the right way.

FOLK OPERA (IRE) improved some more from York as she took the transition to listed level in her stride and appeals as the type to go and make her mark in the numerous pattern events available nowadays for fillies and mares, not yet exposed after just the 5 runs and seeming to do this with a bit to spare having got into contention more smoothly than the runner-up, for all Dettori had to apply much firmer pressure to assert; she'll stay this far even when there is more of an emphasis on stamina.

DRESS REHEARSAL (IRE) is progressing well, with her stable in good form, and is unlikely to be finished improving yet, relishing this step up in trip to run out the game winner and shaping as though she will stay 1¾m; she made most of the running, responding well to pressure when challenged from over
1f out, forging on close home.

Spotlights
Anna Pavlova
Not far off the top older fillies at her best last season and though not at that level in two runs this time, last week´s third in Group 1 at The Curragh was step in the right direction; there is probably more to come and entitled to plenty of respect, especially if the forecast rain arrives.

Ezima
Developed into smart filly last season and been operating at similar level this term, close fifth over barely adequate 1m2f before taking Listed race upped to 1m6f at Leopardstown; versatile as regards trip and ground and bold bid likely under Mick Kinane, who replaces the suspended Kevin Manning.

Folk Opera
Made it two from two since returned from a year off and joining Godolphin, last time when decisively taking Listed race over C&D; may be more to come but that latest race was not a strong one for the level and this Group 2 assignment calls for good bit more.

Samira Gold
Did very well in first campaign last year, one blip when getting worked up beforehand apart; trip and forecast ground should be fine and though more is needed on belated reappearance, wouldn´t completely dismiss with possibility this late developer beinga better filly again this time.

Sweet Lilly
Habitual tail-swisher who has been below her best for the most part this season, particularly when running moderately upped to 1m3f at Warwick last time; good bit to prove in tougher race here.

Turbo LinnWon her first eight starts, five bumpers and three Flat races, the most notable when landing this prize in clearcut style when it was run at Newmarket last year; found it tougher going since but still has leading form chance on this season´s two runs, latest when running as well as could be expected in Group 1 Coronation Cup; likely true pace here will suit too.

Arthur´s Girl
Going the right way, stepping up on her Salisbury maiden win when upped to 1m4f and second in the Ribblesdale at Ascot last time; however, that was not a strong renewal of that Group 2 and more needed to be a leading player here.

CalakangaStepped up on her debut run when taking Chepstow maiden upped to 1m4f but just a fair effort off mark of 80 dropped in trip for handicap debut last time and masses to find to be competitive here.

Clowance (NR)
Progressive filly who followed up a couple of wins over 1m2f at Newbury with staying-on fourth in what looked a strong field for the Oaks at Epsom last time; may have more to come but would appeal more at a bit further again and, beaten over 9l last time, that bare form probably isn´t good enough to win this.

Dress Rehearsal
Progressive filly who stepped up on clearcut maiden win upped to trip just sort of this at Limerick last time and making all to win Listed race; second probably wasn´t quite at his best, while subsequent maiden race defeat for the fourth seems to confirmthat her form leaves a good bit to be desired in this company.

Icon Project
Fulfilled debut promise when winning C&D maiden before finishing fourth in Ribblesdale; only lightly raced but does seem to be comfortably held by Ascot second Arthur´s Girl and up against it here.

SUMMARY
Having looked at this over & over again.
Both the previous winners of this who were C & D winners won their last race (Folk Opera)

The Ribblesdale form rarely get reversed in this race- only the penalty appears to have prevented Armarama winning when this race was won by the Ribblesdale 2nd back in 1992. (Icon project unlikely to reverse form with Arthurs Girl?)

No Group 1 race figured on last run for 4yo winners so I don't see any reason for the two 5yo's having a chance to be the oldest winner of the race. (Anna & Turbo)

Both previous winners who never had a run in current season won their final race so out goes Samira Gold.

Most of the past winners had their final run with a win in a maiden or won or placed in Listed race. As the maiden does not apply this year
the listed brings in Folk Dance, Dress Rehearsal and Ezima.

Logically then (as you can be with stats) its one of the last three mentioned.

Ezima appears to be just a listed level mare, having won three at that level and failed in her group 3 runs.

I prefer Folk Dance and Dress Rehearsal who are improvers.

REVIEW
1st Anna Pavlova
2nd Ezima

Well certainly got this race wrong.
On reflection there were too many flimsy variables in the stats.
This year was a first for the 5yo's and only the 3rd penalty carrier to win.
TRD