Monday, 28 July 2008

GORDON STAKES

1982-2007 26 years
9 favs have won
No odds on have won (4 failed)
Derby Trials at Lingfield(placings 331), Chester (3121), Goodwood (11131), Sandown
(30) & York (232) feature highly
Derby run - either English or French feature (not Irish). 12 ran in Derby and 2 in French equivalent. Only 1 achieved a place in Derby - 3rd.
A Guineas runner features twice and both ran in a Derby.

If the winner never ran in Derby
then it either ran in Group 2 at Nmkt or Royal Ascot (4 but mainly in early 80's)
or
Won a maiden race on last run (2)
or
Was a handicapper (Maraahel, Compton Ace, Stylish Senor & Karazoun)

This years runners
DERBY RUNNERS
Alan Devonshire who ran 4th in Lingfield trial but dropped back in class & distance for a disappointing run last time.
Bouguereau who ran with credit in Derby but failed to inspire in listed event when favourite last time.

Group 2 RUNNERS
Conduit who stepped up in class last run when 2nd at R Ascot.
Hebridean disappointed in same race finishing last. O'Brien doesn't seem to do Goodwood anyway looking at stats. (Sussex Stakes excepted)

GUINEAS RUNNER
Scintillo ran in guineas trial prior to main event and finished 2nd in listed event when upped in distance to 1m 3f. Was a group 1 winner last year and is probably the wild card of this race.

OTHER
Donegal. Ran 5th in Chester Vase and 8th in Ascot Vase. Not much to recommend, except that he did win last time and maybe improving?.

Take Conduit and Scintillo against the field
TRD
Monday 20.30hrs

UPDATE
When posted was not aware that Conduit was odds on (4/6)
So have changed opinion in view of "No Odds On Winner" statistic.
Also checking R Hannon's past performance back to 1994 - never had a Group winner over this distance.

So as for bets I will have a small interest on Donegal who won last time out in the hope that he has finally got the message about racing and winning and also Bouguereau who looked all over the winner of that race and is obviously another where the penny needs to drop. Both are decent prices.

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