R ASCOT Kings Stand Stakes

Part of this post was put up on Betfair Ante Post Forum Sunday 15/6/08.

It really concerns the likely favourite FLEETING SPIRIT who won Temple Stakes at Haydock this year. The Temple Stakes has been a reasonably good guide to The Kings Stand winners having produced 6 winners - who won both Temple & Kings Stand in past 24 yrs.

However Three 4yo's, two 5yo's, a 7yo and an 8yo (7 total) won the Sandown Temple race and did not Kings Stand. All three 4yo's finished 2nd though.

The 3yo's have won 6 of the runnings
All had at least two runs or were first run of season.
Form figures (last two or three are the important)
010-011
13-211
12-0121
011- (filly)
12-2315
3311- (filly)
The two 3yo fillies had not run this season.

3yo fillies that had run once this season and won, then ran in Kings Stand.
Gayane -unpl
Argentum - unpl
Dietrich - unpl
Enticing - unpl
None of these ran in races up to the class of Fleeting Spirit though.

As for older fillies that won.
1131-11 (4yo)
533281-4 (5yo)
2621-21 (5yo)
213-111 (6yo)
Eight from the ten fillies that won the Kings Stand won their last race.

A total of 17 winners of the last 24 runnings of this race won on their last outing.
No 3yo winner won FTO in current season.
The large majority of 4yo and older winners won a group race in current year or previous season.(only 3 years did not fit this stat - ignoring races won by 3yo's)

This race has had some really odd results especially in the last 13 yrs with only Cassandra Go amounting to a normal result.
Who would want to back confidently in a race that has been won by
6 overseas runners, a 3yo whose best win was a hcp, a 6yo and 7yo handicappers, a 3yo whose best win was a class 3 stakes - and first run of season, and include 16/1 20/1 25/1 & 33/1 as starting prices.

The Options
1. Leave the race alone
2. lay Fleeting Spirit
3. Back Takeover Target to do the repeat win of 2 years ago (done by Elbio in 1991 and 1993)
4. Back Kingsgate Native to win (only 3yo to fit the small number of stats)
5. Back Enticing for a place (5th last year behind the overseas contingent and blinkered first time)TRD

REVIEW.
Winner Equiano 22/1 Trained in Spain.
The "bounce factor" regarding Fleeting Spirit was correct (finished 3rd as fav) so proved a reliable lay bet.
Takeover Target finished 2nd.
Kingsgate Native did not run well in this but came out 4 days later and won Jubilee Stakes 6f at 33/1
Enticing finished nearer last.