26 years analysis.
Only 4 winners ran over 5fur in last race.
Two ran at Ascot like todays fav Baileys Cacao.
21 have run at Ascot prior to Empress and 2 won
Runners with form figures 10 like Baileys Cacao - 000300331
The only winner being Polar Circle last year.
15 winners of Empress won their last race over 6f which brings in Aunt Nicola, Barbee, Harriets Girl and Skruton.
No winner has won with form figures 41 (six qualifiers) and Lingfield does not figure in the Track winners list so out goes Skruton.
The question over Aunt Nicola is the 8 day since last run. The only winners to have a short break between last run have come from Ascot and other runners with less than 10 days since a winning run
have failed to win here (5 qualifiers)
No 3 runs winner last time out has won the race and Newcastle or Pontefract do not feature in Track wins so questions against Barbee and Harriets Girl.
Madam Trop Vite won over 5f at Chester. The only winner to have won over 5f last time out won at Nottingham and Chester doesn't feature either.
The two remaining runners have finished 6th and 4th on their only run over 6f which does not feature at all in past results.
Even the draw doesn't help but my two to take as possible winner are drawn 1 and 8.
after taking out the non runners leaving 8 runners.. The 1 draw has won 3 times and
the highest draw has been successful twice.
All this only goes to show that stats can be inconclusive.
RESULT
1st Baileys Cacao 7/4 fav Drawn 1
2nd Select 13/2
3rd Aunt Nicola 5/1 Drawn 8
REVIEW.
The R Ascot form held up here. Form 10 now has the last two winners.
The single figure for days since run confirmed again with Aunt Nicola.
Saturday, 28 June 2008
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