Having perused all the stable info the following are the best win or lose ratio compared to race type and class.
EISTEDDFOD 4.05 Kempton A high win ratio but has never won before May and only won first time out in season as 3yo.
RISING SHADOW 3.15 Newcastle Not many listed winners for this trainer but when they do it matches todays info. An improver last season. (BEST)
TOP TIGER 4.30 Newcastle A fair chance in this maiden. If Harland goes odds on then that is the bet. He has had 7 from 8 win when evens or less but longer than evens the ratio is 3 from 12.
LAYS;
Prime Defender 2.55 Kemp
Kings Apostle 5.15 Kemp
Dichoh 2.40 Newc
Hinton Admiral 3.15 Newc
Good Luck
TRD
Saturday, 31 March 2007
MASAKA STAKES UPDATE
Post Race Update.
Clearly the last 2 years this race has been run on AW course has had an effect upon previous turf stats.
Both winners had been engaged in Dubai over winter. They had also performed in decent races.
The handicap runs appear to apply though, proved again this year by the favourite Laurentina.
TRD 1/4/2007
The morning of race 11.15am GMT
I rest with Princess Valerina
She and Laurentina are both well backed.
Laurentina has won 2 on trot as 2yo - only 2 previous winners of this race from 26 qualifiers since 1994 have the same trait. Neither of those 2 winners won a handicap.
If Laurentina has a positive then it is only run on AW was a win over todays course.
Generally a D (class 4) hcp win (at Catterick) does not figure amongst previous winners of this race.
The only concern is that this race was run on AW last year for first time and statistics may not be 100% reliable as turf.
WINNERS OF MASAKA.
Poor record for 1000 gns - No winners but two ran 3rd in 2004 / 2005
Ten winners since 1988 managed a single win during rest of season.
Clearly the last 2 years this race has been run on AW course has had an effect upon previous turf stats.
Both winners had been engaged in Dubai over winter. They had also performed in decent races.
The handicap runs appear to apply though, proved again this year by the favourite Laurentina.
TRD 1/4/2007
The morning of race 11.15am GMT
I rest with Princess Valerina
She and Laurentina are both well backed.
Laurentina has won 2 on trot as 2yo - only 2 previous winners of this race from 26 qualifiers since 1994 have the same trait. Neither of those 2 winners won a handicap.
If Laurentina has a positive then it is only run on AW was a win over todays course.
Generally a D (class 4) hcp win (at Catterick) does not figure amongst previous winners of this race.
The only concern is that this race was run on AW last year for first time and statistics may not be 100% reliable as turf.
WINNERS OF MASAKA.
Poor record for 1000 gns - No winners but two ran 3rd in 2004 / 2005
Ten winners since 1988 managed a single win during rest of season.
Friday, 30 March 2007
MASAKA STAKES KEMPTON
(1)A total of 29 runners in Masaka Stakes since 1994 had contested a handicap race. Of these 15 had actually won a handicap at either 2 or 3yo. None of these won the Masaka race. The only winner was in 1991 that actually ran 2nd in C grade handicap over 6 furlongs. The theory is not tested with a B (class 2) winner yet though.
NEGATIVE for
Fiumicino (won D hcp & unp E hcp)
Laurentina (won D hcp)
Mystery Ocean (2nd D hcp & unpl D hcp)
Ronaldsway ??? (won B hcp at York) This is only B grade hcp winner to run in this race.
(2)Since 1994 when the Masaka attained Listed status there has only been one winner that was a maiden. That was placed in all her three maiden runs as 2yo
NEGATIVE for
Musical Beat (3 runs but still mdn)
(3)Most winners had their maiden win in first 3 runs and ran final race in October.
NEGATIVE for
Fiumicino (Won on fourth run – Hcp)
Harvest Joy (Won on fourth run – Mdn)
Lakshmi (Last run July)
Musical Beat (Last run Dec)
Precocious Star (Last seasonal run in Aug BUT has ran in Dubai this year)
Ronaldsway (Won on fourth run – Hcp)
That leaves just one horse without a main negative
PRINCESS VALERINA
More update tomorrow regarding stable news etc
TRD 30/3/2007
NEGATIVE for
Fiumicino (won D hcp & unp E hcp)
Laurentina (won D hcp)
Mystery Ocean (2nd D hcp & unpl D hcp)
Ronaldsway ??? (won B hcp at York) This is only B grade hcp winner to run in this race.
(2)Since 1994 when the Masaka attained Listed status there has only been one winner that was a maiden. That was placed in all her three maiden runs as 2yo
NEGATIVE for
Musical Beat (3 runs but still mdn)
(3)Most winners had their maiden win in first 3 runs and ran final race in October.
NEGATIVE for
Fiumicino (Won on fourth run – Hcp)
Harvest Joy (Won on fourth run – Mdn)
Lakshmi (Last run July)
Musical Beat (Last run Dec)
Precocious Star (Last seasonal run in Aug BUT has ran in Dubai this year)
Ronaldsway (Won on fourth run – Hcp)
That leaves just one horse without a main negative
PRINCESS VALERINA
More update tomorrow regarding stable news etc
TRD 30/3/2007
Thursday, 22 March 2007
WINTER DERBY LINGFIELD
Main Areas of Analysis based on positives from previous winners
C&D winners
Winners this year
Distance winners
Latest win over distance of race
Listed Grade run
Listed Grade win
Win to runs ratio
AW wins to run ratio
Lingfield AW run ratio
Days since run
Last Season endurance
Taking all these factors into account the following scores per runner
C U SOON 12
MIGHTY 10
SRI DIAMOND 9
BLUE BAJAN 9
CIMYLA 9
SPEEDY SAM 8
GENTLEMANS DEAL 7
GRAND PASSION 7
RED SPELL 7
ORCHARD SUPREME 6
HATTAN 5
ALFIE FLITS 4
ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE 3
LUBERON 1
Cusoon won the main trial for this race by short head from Blue Bajan.
Five previous winners of this trial race have won the Winter Derby and one was second out of the 8 races since 1999.
Cusoon is no certainty but ticks all the right boxes and improved from handicap company to win the listed trial event last time out. Six of the eight previous winners had progressive wins from handicaps to listed grade. This race was run as a Listed event until 2006 when it became Group 3 status. The statistical trends did not alter in last years result.
The race readers regarded that Blue was unlucky in running.
A similar incident occurred in 1999 when Refuse to Lose was narrowly beaten
in the trial race and started at 6/4 fav for Derby race finishing unplaced.
Blue Bajan’s highest grade win was class 3 stakes race at Ascot last September.
Normally the winner of this race has previously won a Listed Event.
“Blue’s” 2 wins from 9 over the distance are slightly below the average previous winners ratio. Also “Blue” has won 4 of his 7 wins over a distance of 12 furlongs – the only other winner of this race to record a win over 12 furs was Sri Diamond (2 wins over that distance). In Blue’s favour are 3 runs at Linga (W22) and his race class for last 3 races since his Ascot win have upped to Class 2, Listed & Listed. Another positive is jockey M Hills who has ridden him 3 times finishing WW2(short head).
Mighty has only had 6 career runs resulting in 3 wins – all at Lingfield AW over this distance. Adiemus & Parasol won this race with 8 and 9 runs under their belt. Both had good win ratio at Linga (2 from 4 and 1 from 1 respectively). Mighty has yet to win at listed level but is improving and has progressed in class with each race. Whether he can turn the tables on Cusoon and Blue Bajan is the issue?
Sri Diamond ticks most of the boxes and his Linga runs 30WWW5WWW are excellent. He is also a Group 3 winner having won this race last year. The concern is a short season last year ending in April. The majority of winners have a full season to November or December and also a win during February in current year. “Sri’s” class 2 handicap win 77 days ago may just not be quite good enough though 6 wins from 9 races at Linga plus 7 wins from last 11 races and successes in March for last 2 years shouldn’t put him out of calculations. Adiemus failed narrowly to follow up his 2002 win in this race a year later.
Cimyla ran 5th in last years race (with Grand Passion and Red Spell). Previous runners do not fare well as winners in next years running. He does have a good AW record – 5 wins from 7 runs.
Gentlemans Deal is the wild card in the race. Never ran at Lingfield or won over distance. He has however won all his 6 AW races, including a listed event last time out. He is improving and could very well win this.
I cannot make much case out for the remainder.
SUMMARY;
There are a number of good AW performers in this years race.
Whether the race is a proper G3 or just a good Listed event that suits AW performers is the question. I suspect the latter and the race should go to a consistent and improving performer like the previous years. I wouldn’t place too much emphasis on age or draw. The top speed ratings cover the 3 named below.
Selection. CUSOON
Alternative. GENTLEMANS DEAL
EW. BLUE BAJAN
Not a race to get too involved in!
TRD.
C&D winners
Winners this year
Distance winners
Latest win over distance of race
Listed Grade run
Listed Grade win
Win to runs ratio
AW wins to run ratio
Lingfield AW run ratio
Days since run
Last Season endurance
Taking all these factors into account the following scores per runner
C U SOON 12
MIGHTY 10
SRI DIAMOND 9
BLUE BAJAN 9
CIMYLA 9
SPEEDY SAM 8
GENTLEMANS DEAL 7
GRAND PASSION 7
RED SPELL 7
ORCHARD SUPREME 6
HATTAN 5
ALFIE FLITS 4
ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE 3
LUBERON 1
Cusoon won the main trial for this race by short head from Blue Bajan.
Five previous winners of this trial race have won the Winter Derby and one was second out of the 8 races since 1999.
Cusoon is no certainty but ticks all the right boxes and improved from handicap company to win the listed trial event last time out. Six of the eight previous winners had progressive wins from handicaps to listed grade. This race was run as a Listed event until 2006 when it became Group 3 status. The statistical trends did not alter in last years result.
The race readers regarded that Blue was unlucky in running.
A similar incident occurred in 1999 when Refuse to Lose was narrowly beaten
in the trial race and started at 6/4 fav for Derby race finishing unplaced.
Blue Bajan’s highest grade win was class 3 stakes race at Ascot last September.
Normally the winner of this race has previously won a Listed Event.
“Blue’s” 2 wins from 9 over the distance are slightly below the average previous winners ratio. Also “Blue” has won 4 of his 7 wins over a distance of 12 furlongs – the only other winner of this race to record a win over 12 furs was Sri Diamond (2 wins over that distance). In Blue’s favour are 3 runs at Linga (W22) and his race class for last 3 races since his Ascot win have upped to Class 2, Listed & Listed. Another positive is jockey M Hills who has ridden him 3 times finishing WW2(short head).
Mighty has only had 6 career runs resulting in 3 wins – all at Lingfield AW over this distance. Adiemus & Parasol won this race with 8 and 9 runs under their belt. Both had good win ratio at Linga (2 from 4 and 1 from 1 respectively). Mighty has yet to win at listed level but is improving and has progressed in class with each race. Whether he can turn the tables on Cusoon and Blue Bajan is the issue?
Sri Diamond ticks most of the boxes and his Linga runs 30WWW5WWW are excellent. He is also a Group 3 winner having won this race last year. The concern is a short season last year ending in April. The majority of winners have a full season to November or December and also a win during February in current year. “Sri’s” class 2 handicap win 77 days ago may just not be quite good enough though 6 wins from 9 races at Linga plus 7 wins from last 11 races and successes in March for last 2 years shouldn’t put him out of calculations. Adiemus failed narrowly to follow up his 2002 win in this race a year later.
Cimyla ran 5th in last years race (with Grand Passion and Red Spell). Previous runners do not fare well as winners in next years running. He does have a good AW record – 5 wins from 7 runs.
Gentlemans Deal is the wild card in the race. Never ran at Lingfield or won over distance. He has however won all his 6 AW races, including a listed event last time out. He is improving and could very well win this.
I cannot make much case out for the remainder.
SUMMARY;
There are a number of good AW performers in this years race.
Whether the race is a proper G3 or just a good Listed event that suits AW performers is the question. I suspect the latter and the race should go to a consistent and improving performer like the previous years. I wouldn’t place too much emphasis on age or draw. The top speed ratings cover the 3 named below.
Selection. CUSOON
Alternative. GENTLEMANS DEAL
EW. BLUE BAJAN
Not a race to get too involved in!
TRD.
Saturday, 17 March 2007
1000 Guineas
SANDER CAMILLO is the selection based upon similar traits to previous winner Attraction
The Guineas Trials are very important before final selection though.
The following interest has already been placed
BackYourOddsYourStakeYourProfit
Sander Camillo
6.4 @ £17.00 =£91.80
Ref: 2872416808 Bet matched: 16:16 17-Jan-07
Sander Camillo
6.8 @ £8.00 = £46.40
Ref: 2872417453 Bet matched: 13:10 18-Jan-07
Sander Camillo
7 @ £5.00 =£30.00
Ref: 2877241998 Bet matched: 13:10 18-Jan-07
Sander Camillo
7.4 @ £8.00 = £51.20
Ref: 2888860369 Bet matched: 15:07 23-Jan-07
Sander Camillo
8 @£18.00 = £126.00
Ref: 2882175051 Bet matched: 11:23 24-Jan-07
Sander Camillo
10 @ £25.00 = £225.00
Ref: 2905247709 Bet matched: 23:10 18-Feb-07
The Guineas Trials are very important before final selection though.
The following interest has already been placed
BackYourOddsYourStakeYourProfit
Sander Camillo
6.4 @ £17.00 =£91.80
Ref: 2872416808 Bet matched: 16:16 17-Jan-07
Sander Camillo
6.8 @ £8.00 = £46.40
Ref: 2872417453 Bet matched: 13:10 18-Jan-07
Sander Camillo
7 @ £5.00 =£30.00
Ref: 2877241998 Bet matched: 13:10 18-Jan-07
Sander Camillo
7.4 @ £8.00 = £51.20
Ref: 2888860369 Bet matched: 15:07 23-Jan-07
Sander Camillo
8 @£18.00 = £126.00
Ref: 2882175051 Bet matched: 11:23 24-Jan-07
Sander Camillo
10 @ £25.00 = £225.00
Ref: 2905247709 Bet matched: 23:10 18-Feb-07
Memorandum of Understanding
This site is not intended as a tipping service.
It is to allow like minds to communicate their views on a particular race or share methodology in the pursuit of winner finding.
It is not the idea to compete with any individual to determine who is best.
It is accepted that there is no simple way to winners but this site offers a constructive input to assist in determining a horses chance of winning.
There is often no particular selection in any one race. Sometimes there are 3 or 4 horses with chances that can all be backed at favourable odds resulting in a profit on the race.
The statistics are obtained from 25 years in some races but conditions may vary over the years.
Meetings such as Chester May Meeting, Royal Ascot, Glorious Goodwood offer races that have survived the same conditions over the years. Top racecourses such as Newmarket, Newbury, York and Doncaster also offer good opportunities throughout the season.
All Weather racing rarely offers the same statistical viewpoints.
National Hunt racing is generally avoided as statistics rely on horse completing the race.
Speed Figures vary and this area has not been fully explored by the originator, although some races will have an input to some degree.
This is my diary and notebook for data on certain races during a season. It does contain a lot of factual data based upon statistics over 26 years. I try to update the races each year on here but also keep a more comprehensive paper file on bigger race meetings. You are welcome to use the facility and if you wish to share knowledge or communicate then email theracingdetective@tiscali.co.uk
It is to allow like minds to communicate their views on a particular race or share methodology in the pursuit of winner finding.
It is not the idea to compete with any individual to determine who is best.
It is accepted that there is no simple way to winners but this site offers a constructive input to assist in determining a horses chance of winning.
There is often no particular selection in any one race. Sometimes there are 3 or 4 horses with chances that can all be backed at favourable odds resulting in a profit on the race.
The statistics are obtained from 25 years in some races but conditions may vary over the years.
Meetings such as Chester May Meeting, Royal Ascot, Glorious Goodwood offer races that have survived the same conditions over the years. Top racecourses such as Newmarket, Newbury, York and Doncaster also offer good opportunities throughout the season.
All Weather racing rarely offers the same statistical viewpoints.
National Hunt racing is generally avoided as statistics rely on horse completing the race.
Speed Figures vary and this area has not been fully explored by the originator, although some races will have an input to some degree.
This is my diary and notebook for data on certain races during a season. It does contain a lot of factual data based upon statistics over 26 years. I try to update the races each year on here but also keep a more comprehensive paper file on bigger race meetings. You are welcome to use the facility and if you wish to share knowledge or communicate then email theracingdetective@tiscali.co.uk
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
