3.15 CHESTER 5f Hcp Weds
The draw plays an important part in this race.
If the draw is Good or softer then the highest winning draw was 7.
The qualifiers in todays race which now has 12 runners due to 3 withdrawals.
Good Gorson is eliminated as 4yo’s have a poor record in this race. (unless CD winner and/or won current season)
Horse Age Weight Dist Days LTO Track grade Spd SH SH
Strike
up the Band6 Top D 28 4 Nott C 1 F -
Sohraab 5 High D 19 2 Newb B 3 SF SF
Carcinetto7 High D 8 0 South Claim 4 - -
Angus Newz6 Bottom D C 9 6 Bath A 5 - -
Northern Dare5 Bottom D 8 4 Wolv D - -
Top weights have won 5 previous runnings
Bottom weights 4
High 3
Bath run last time has produced 2 wins
Newb 4
Nott 1
The main selection is Sohraab based upon factors;
Only winner that ran 2nd on previous outing was in same race.
That race has produced 4 winners.
The stable info today has produced the results 2nd W W 0 2nd
Fonthill Road was just btn by Nicholls runner in photo.
Janannpee was beaten a length by the favourite.
Also noting Sohraab’s form it is noticed that no wins on Good or softer going.
Todays going is described as Good with Good to Firm in places.
It would be wise to back savers accordingly from the list as Fire Up the Band (16/1)
Who beat Fonthill Road was also in the list the only previous time this has been
Researched. David Nicholls has 3 runners today (as usual) and two are in the list.
4.00 Stats show that top weights that won last time out do not win this (Kings Destiny).
Distance winners that have won two career races do. Fortuni would have also fitted but has
Been withdrawn but trainer Prescott still has Braveheart in the race. The only winner that hadn’t
Run in current season was Swiss Act in 2007.
HEADLINE ACT is selected
4.35.
Stats show that 7 or 8 fur runs last time out win two thirds of the past races as opposed to 10f which won the remainder.
Also there hasn't been a reversal of form so Harbinger should beat Beauchamp Xerxes again (8f race)
and likewise Calypso Bay should beat Devotion to Duty (10f race).
The previous winners have all either been Nmkt or Manton trained.
Stoute has won this with a runner that finished 3rd in the race that Harbinger was 2nd.
As Harbinger is aimed at Dante - Derby then this should be his race and the forecast maybe a possibility.
Wednesday, 6 May 2009
Tuesday, 5 May 2009
CHESTER LILY AGNES
Generally this race is often won by a single run winner (14-31)
Two occasions a double winner has won resulting in 16-31 going unbeaten to post.
Taking the unbeaten winners out of the scenario we are left with 12 winners who had won a race (including 4 who won two races) and only two of those ran unplaced in a race - both on first run.The four winners that bucked the trends were
What Fun - 3rd on only outing (This was a weaker race with 4 unraced of the 7 runners.
Digital Image - first time out
Cracking - unplaced first run and won (The year Vhujon was withdrawn)
Doncaster Rover -2nd on only run. (all the other 6 runners were fillies)
Richard Hannon has won this race on 6 occasions from 10 attempts.
The Berry stable (Jack and now Alan) have won 6 races also.
The Brocklesby runners
1985 Runaway WON.
2001 Shifting Kid 2nd (photo)and Magic Trick 3rd.
2002 The Lord WON
2003 Dance Night WON and Mitchelland 4th
2008 Doncaster Rover WON
The DRAW. (winners draw on varying going)
Soft 1 1 1 1
G/Soft 2 1 1 1 1
Good 3 2 1 2 2 2 1 2
G/Firm 1 5 8 3 6 1 3 5 5 8 3 5 2
Firm no races.
This years runners and previous stats back to 1977
Star Rover
Trainer David Evans has had eight attempts at this race and has a 2nd place to show for his efforts. In 2007 his runner Vhujon was withdrawn on day of the race when favourite and probable winner.
Star Rover has won all three of his races.
No previous runner since 1977 has won three races prior to this race so we are in unknown territory this year.
The most wins prior to this race is two and a total of twelve runners have come into eight previous Lily Agnes races (duplicates on four occasions)resulting in 3 wins.
Unbeaten two win runners amount to four and only one won.
Top weights who carried over 9stone won three of the eight qualfying races.
David Evans ran two in the race last year, both unbeaten and the one who had won its both races and was top weight with 8-13 started at 4/5 fav and finished 4th.
The questions against are the weight and the draw (5) and trainer record
The positive - unbeaten
Archers Road
Mick Channon hasn't had a runner since 2002. His three runners who contested this all appeared to have live chances. 1998 Golden Silca (form 1) backed from 3/1 into 9/4 second favourite and finished 2nd.She went onto win four races including two Group 2 races that year. 1999 Barringer (form 2121) 5/4 fav unplaced.
2002 Polar Force (form 1) 5/1 out to 6/1 unplaced.
His runner this year contested the Brocklesby finishing 2nd.
Questions. Newcastle and Leicester where the wins occurred do not feature in past winners. The draw (7)
Positives. Runners who had always finished in first two in their previous three or more races have won 2 from 7 qualifiers.
The Brocklesby record in this.
Duke of Rainford
One run last of 12 at Nottingham.
Appears to be the trainers first runner in this race.
Question. Everything including the draw (8)
Positive. Dwelt and hampered and backed from 10/1 to 11/2 on only run.
Fratellino
Over 4 lengths behind Archers Road at Ascot last time.
Questions. Upped in class from last when RPost said needed a drop in class.
Positives. Led last time and could possibly lead the race if gets a good start from 4
Goodbye Earl.
100-1 in only race hampered and gradually weakened in only race
Question. Everything except the draw.Appears held by My Mandy.
Positives. The draw and stable record in race.
Kings of Leo
This filly came out at Windsor (3/1 fav) and faded after chasing leader.
She won at Warwick on BH Monday.
Questions. The quick outing of only two days.The draw.
Positives. Trainer record in this race. Three of his winners had their first run at Windsor.
Mijas Playa.
Good run when 2nd in a decent race at Nmkt.Tricky Note (1987) came from same race.
Appears to have a couple of pounds in hand over Kings of Leo through a line with Six Wives and more on a line with Azif. Trainer won this 1996.
Questions. Runners who were 2nd on only run have produced 1 win and 3 seconds from 8 qualifiers. The fillies ratio is one second and three unplaced - including Kilcora 1997 who also ran her race at Nmkt.
Positives. Daryll Holland rides her again. Alan Bailey who trained winner that beat Mijas loves Chester and intimated that the winner would run in this race. The draw
(3) based on weakness of lower drawn runners.
My Mandy
Three runs without a win and Pattersea Girl overturned form of first run when they met. Raced alone when decent 2nd at Haydock. If she does that here, from stall 9, she will cover a furlong more.
Questions. No previous winner has had two or three placed runs.The draw.
Positives. Will be company in horse box for Duke of Rainford.
Tom Folan
I have lost count of the number of times this one has been withdrawn from races recently. At least two I can recall. Appears held by Fratellino and Mick Channon should know where he stands through form lines.
Questions. Whether it will run or be withdrawn.
Positive. Good draw.
Two occasions a double winner has won resulting in 16-31 going unbeaten to post.
Taking the unbeaten winners out of the scenario we are left with 12 winners who had won a race (including 4 who won two races) and only two of those ran unplaced in a race - both on first run.The four winners that bucked the trends were
What Fun - 3rd on only outing (This was a weaker race with 4 unraced of the 7 runners.
Digital Image - first time out
Cracking - unplaced first run and won (The year Vhujon was withdrawn)
Doncaster Rover -2nd on only run. (all the other 6 runners were fillies)
Richard Hannon has won this race on 6 occasions from 10 attempts.
The Berry stable (Jack and now Alan) have won 6 races also.
The Brocklesby runners
1985 Runaway WON.
2001 Shifting Kid 2nd (photo)and Magic Trick 3rd.
2002 The Lord WON
2003 Dance Night WON and Mitchelland 4th
2008 Doncaster Rover WON
The DRAW. (winners draw on varying going)
Soft 1 1 1 1
G/Soft 2 1 1 1 1
Good 3 2 1 2 2 2 1 2
G/Firm 1 5 8 3 6 1 3 5 5 8 3 5 2
Firm no races.
This years runners and previous stats back to 1977
Star Rover
Trainer David Evans has had eight attempts at this race and has a 2nd place to show for his efforts. In 2007 his runner Vhujon was withdrawn on day of the race when favourite and probable winner.
Star Rover has won all three of his races.
No previous runner since 1977 has won three races prior to this race so we are in unknown territory this year.
The most wins prior to this race is two and a total of twelve runners have come into eight previous Lily Agnes races (duplicates on four occasions)resulting in 3 wins.
Unbeaten two win runners amount to four and only one won.
Top weights who carried over 9stone won three of the eight qualfying races.
David Evans ran two in the race last year, both unbeaten and the one who had won its both races and was top weight with 8-13 started at 4/5 fav and finished 4th.
The questions against are the weight and the draw (5) and trainer record
The positive - unbeaten
Archers Road
Mick Channon hasn't had a runner since 2002. His three runners who contested this all appeared to have live chances. 1998 Golden Silca (form 1) backed from 3/1 into 9/4 second favourite and finished 2nd.She went onto win four races including two Group 2 races that year. 1999 Barringer (form 2121) 5/4 fav unplaced.
2002 Polar Force (form 1) 5/1 out to 6/1 unplaced.
His runner this year contested the Brocklesby finishing 2nd.
Questions. Newcastle and Leicester where the wins occurred do not feature in past winners. The draw (7)
Positives. Runners who had always finished in first two in their previous three or more races have won 2 from 7 qualifiers.
The Brocklesby record in this.
Duke of Rainford
One run last of 12 at Nottingham.
Appears to be the trainers first runner in this race.
Question. Everything including the draw (8)
Positive. Dwelt and hampered and backed from 10/1 to 11/2 on only run.
Fratellino
Over 4 lengths behind Archers Road at Ascot last time.
Questions. Upped in class from last when RPost said needed a drop in class.
Positives. Led last time and could possibly lead the race if gets a good start from 4
Goodbye Earl.
100-1 in only race hampered and gradually weakened in only race
Question. Everything except the draw.Appears held by My Mandy.
Positives. The draw and stable record in race.
Kings of Leo
This filly came out at Windsor (3/1 fav) and faded after chasing leader.
She won at Warwick on BH Monday.
Questions. The quick outing of only two days.The draw.
Positives. Trainer record in this race. Three of his winners had their first run at Windsor.
Mijas Playa.
Good run when 2nd in a decent race at Nmkt.Tricky Note (1987) came from same race.
Appears to have a couple of pounds in hand over Kings of Leo through a line with Six Wives and more on a line with Azif. Trainer won this 1996.
Questions. Runners who were 2nd on only run have produced 1 win and 3 seconds from 8 qualifiers. The fillies ratio is one second and three unplaced - including Kilcora 1997 who also ran her race at Nmkt.
Positives. Daryll Holland rides her again. Alan Bailey who trained winner that beat Mijas loves Chester and intimated that the winner would run in this race. The draw
(3) based on weakness of lower drawn runners.
My Mandy
Three runs without a win and Pattersea Girl overturned form of first run when they met. Raced alone when decent 2nd at Haydock. If she does that here, from stall 9, she will cover a furlong more.
Questions. No previous winner has had two or three placed runs.The draw.
Positives. Will be company in horse box for Duke of Rainford.
Tom Folan
I have lost count of the number of times this one has been withdrawn from races recently. At least two I can recall. Appears held by Fratellino and Mick Channon should know where he stands through form lines.
Questions. Whether it will run or be withdrawn.
Positive. Good draw.
Sunday, 5 April 2009
Sunday 5th April
No flat racing (apart from 3 bumper races)
It is a gardening day and to reflect on last weeks negatives and positives.
It is a gardening day and to reflect on last weeks negatives and positives.
SATURDAY 4th April
Too busy to post yesterday
Family visit for day.
Bets
Lay on Archers Road (again!!!) on basis of 2 day since last run and apprentice ridden
RESULT. It won
Lay on Cadre on basis that Gosden record with low prices in hcps is pretty poor. Also this has only had two runs (1 each season) and a long lay off. Its only win came at Lingfield AW (left hand) and todays race was at Kempton (rh). The price of 1.96 was much too short IMO.
Result. Cadre unpl
Win bet on Rafaan 4.30 Newcastle on basis that M Johnston does well in April with Long Break runners that were placed on prev run in this race type whilst B Hills does better in May.
RESULT
Rafan 1st
Ruler Of All 2nd
Family visit for day.
Bets
Lay on Archers Road (again!!!) on basis of 2 day since last run and apprentice ridden
RESULT. It won
Lay on Cadre on basis that Gosden record with low prices in hcps is pretty poor. Also this has only had two runs (1 each season) and a long lay off. Its only win came at Lingfield AW (left hand) and todays race was at Kempton (rh). The price of 1.96 was much too short IMO.
Result. Cadre unpl
Win bet on Rafaan 4.30 Newcastle on basis that M Johnston does well in April with Long Break runners that were placed on prev run in this race type whilst B Hills does better in May.
RESULT
Rafan 1st
Ruler Of All 2nd
Friday, 3 April 2009
FRIDAY 3rd APRIL
Bath, Mussellburgh & Wolver today.
A bit of a setback yesterday with 2 lays winning their races.
The run of good luck never lasts long.
The bank is now £1,882.37
After one week of the new season it is still a healthy profit of £1382
The target set was to win £500 per week - £12000 for the season.
A couple of rules were broken this week
(a) Never lay in an odds on fav race.
(b) Beware 3yo hcps early season
Supernoverre and Wajaha were both 3yo hcp races and the latter was odds on.
Still the 7th day of the week (Sat-Fri) today but the racing doesn't appeal much.
Not sure if that is because of yesterdays loss or weak racing today.
2.10 BATH
I don't care for Hannons runner Crown in this and is a tentative lay at 3.0 on BF
Chicita Banana was touted for the Brocklesbury and is fancied again today.
G Baker the trainer is new so there is very little data for his methods.
I have asked for a lower price in running on a lay (win) bet on Crown.
RESULT
Chicita Banana 1st 15/8
Crown uplaced
2.55 Musselburgh
Mark Johnston is not very good with FTO 2yo's at this time of year. April is a poor month and May is better for his winners. I would be willing to lay Always Dixie today but the high price (6.0) is a bit off putting.
Looking at last years 2yo mdns there aren't many trainers with runners in this that are good with 2yo's in April months. K Ryan and B Smart are OK but noticed that Midgely had two early 2yo mdn winners in April last year with todays jockey aboard.
It's a tentative bet but at 50/1 Miccolo could be well worth my £20.
RESULT
Monalini 1st 2/1 (B Smart)
Always Dixie 3rd 6/1
Miccolo unpl
Tips from other sources
None today.
TRD 13.30pm
This was last years Bumper post for 5.30 AINTREE
The things to note are highlighted.
The Sandown race is a guide to this and four ran in that race
Diklers Oscar unpl
Kerada 5th
Polly Potter 3rd
Basford lass unpl
AlaN King has a great place record in this race and cetainly knows where he stands against Kerada. Henderson won it last year with Caroles Legacy who only had one run (win) prior to this race. Alan King runs two one run winners - Chilly Rose and Miss Overdrive.I was impressed with D Pipes Jubilee Queen last time out.
The lack of Mares Listed Bumper Races was highlighted in the previous Sandown post.
In this Aintree race - run over the last three years the trainer Alan King has had the winner and two seconds - a remarkable record.
Nicky Henderson however has a very dismal record at Aintree in these bumper races.
Todays race has been won previously by two 4yo's and a 5yo but really 4yo did not have much of a presence when 5yo won.
Generally in the Listed Mares races won by a 4yo (four) the mare has began over a distance short of 2 miles and possibly a 3yo race. The only exception was Dayia who won the Sandown Listed race last month and surprisingly misses this race as trainer said it was better at weights in tomorrows Aintree race.
Todays race has a few runners from that Sandown race - which has provided a few placed mares (especially A King's runners). A King runs Over Sixty but that was beaten at Sandown by his other two runners Dancingwithbubbles (2nd) and Gold Reef (4th) neither of which run today. The only placed runner from the Sandown race is Argento Luna which must be seriously considered for a place here.
The previous winners and majority of placed horses have not been out of first three in their races and mailny won or finished 2nd on last run.
That should rule out Ravello Bay, Over Sixty and the none winners out of calculations.
I feel that the 4yo's will have the race today and will back accordingly but more so for the place.
Bets Place
Argento Luna 3.2 £16.00 £35.20
Divali Princess 18 £16.77 £285.09
18.5 £3.23 £56.53
Back Win Odds YourStake YourProfit
Yonder 5.7 £10.00 £47.00
Caroles Legacy 75 £2.00 £148.00
Divali Princess 75 £2.00 £148.00
REVIEW1st Caroles Legacy 25/1
2nd Divali Princess 40/1
3rd Call Me a Legend
5th Argento Luna
UNPL FAv Yonder
A great result for my place bets and £2 on the winner at 75/1
Alan Kings horses 2nd and 3rd keeping up his fantastic record in this race
Posted by The Racing Detective at 10:31 0 comments
A bit of a setback yesterday with 2 lays winning their races.
The run of good luck never lasts long.
The bank is now £1,882.37
After one week of the new season it is still a healthy profit of £1382
The target set was to win £500 per week - £12000 for the season.
A couple of rules were broken this week
(a) Never lay in an odds on fav race.
(b) Beware 3yo hcps early season
Supernoverre and Wajaha were both 3yo hcp races and the latter was odds on.
Still the 7th day of the week (Sat-Fri) today but the racing doesn't appeal much.
Not sure if that is because of yesterdays loss or weak racing today.
2.10 BATH
I don't care for Hannons runner Crown in this and is a tentative lay at 3.0 on BF
Chicita Banana was touted for the Brocklesbury and is fancied again today.
G Baker the trainer is new so there is very little data for his methods.
I have asked for a lower price in running on a lay (win) bet on Crown.
RESULT
Chicita Banana 1st 15/8
Crown uplaced
2.55 Musselburgh
Mark Johnston is not very good with FTO 2yo's at this time of year. April is a poor month and May is better for his winners. I would be willing to lay Always Dixie today but the high price (6.0) is a bit off putting.
Looking at last years 2yo mdns there aren't many trainers with runners in this that are good with 2yo's in April months. K Ryan and B Smart are OK but noticed that Midgely had two early 2yo mdn winners in April last year with todays jockey aboard.
It's a tentative bet but at 50/1 Miccolo could be well worth my £20.
RESULT
Monalini 1st 2/1 (B Smart)
Always Dixie 3rd 6/1
Miccolo unpl
Tips from other sources
None today.
TRD 13.30pm
This was last years Bumper post for 5.30 AINTREE
The things to note are highlighted.
The Sandown race is a guide to this and four ran in that race
Diklers Oscar unpl
Kerada 5th
Polly Potter 3rd
Basford lass unpl
AlaN King has a great place record in this race and cetainly knows where he stands against Kerada. Henderson won it last year with Caroles Legacy who only had one run (win) prior to this race. Alan King runs two one run winners - Chilly Rose and Miss Overdrive.I was impressed with D Pipes Jubilee Queen last time out.
The lack of Mares Listed Bumper Races was highlighted in the previous Sandown post.
In this Aintree race - run over the last three years the trainer Alan King has had the winner and two seconds - a remarkable record.
Nicky Henderson however has a very dismal record at Aintree in these bumper races.
Todays race has been won previously by two 4yo's and a 5yo but really 4yo did not have much of a presence when 5yo won.
Generally in the Listed Mares races won by a 4yo (four) the mare has began over a distance short of 2 miles and possibly a 3yo race. The only exception was Dayia who won the Sandown Listed race last month and surprisingly misses this race as trainer said it was better at weights in tomorrows Aintree race.
Todays race has a few runners from that Sandown race - which has provided a few placed mares (especially A King's runners). A King runs Over Sixty but that was beaten at Sandown by his other two runners Dancingwithbubbles (2nd) and Gold Reef (4th) neither of which run today. The only placed runner from the Sandown race is Argento Luna which must be seriously considered for a place here.
The previous winners and majority of placed horses have not been out of first three in their races and mailny won or finished 2nd on last run.
That should rule out Ravello Bay, Over Sixty and the none winners out of calculations.
I feel that the 4yo's will have the race today and will back accordingly but more so for the place.
Bets Place
Argento Luna 3.2 £16.00 £35.20
Divali Princess 18 £16.77 £285.09
18.5 £3.23 £56.53
Back Win Odds YourStake YourProfit
Yonder 5.7 £10.00 £47.00
Caroles Legacy 75 £2.00 £148.00
Divali Princess 75 £2.00 £148.00
REVIEW1st Caroles Legacy 25/1
2nd Divali Princess 40/1
3rd Call Me a Legend
5th Argento Luna
UNPL FAv Yonder
A great result for my place bets and £2 on the winner at 75/1
Alan Kings horses 2nd and 3rd keeping up his fantastic record in this race
Posted by The Racing Detective at 10:31 0 comments
Thursday, 2 April 2009
THURSDAY 2nd APRIL
Two flat meetings today at Leicester and Kempton AW (evening)
2.10 LEIC
Mick Channon runs his Brocklesby 2nd (class 4)in this auction class 5 race after only 5 days. This race will test the Brocklesby form.
It is one of 3 fancied runners with Farmer Giles and Jack My Boy being the other two.
I posted a this a couple of years ago on prev blog. It has been updated.
Checking the stats for M Channon where a 2yo has run 2nd on first outing and subsequently ran in April.
All 5 fur races in 2yo maidens.
Rosmojusque 1994 unplaced 7/4
Final Spoof 1994 unplaced 9/4
Irish Fiction 1996 2nd 3/1
Wait For Rosie 1996 3rd 10/3
Mardoof 2002 3rd 1/2 (in this Leic race)
Evanesce 2004 2nd Evens
Jaasey 2005 unpl 7/4
Rouen 2006 unp Evens
Suhayl Star unpl Newby 2006 unp 7/2
Silver Guest 2nd 8/13 LEIC 2007
Legendary Guest unpl 1/2 LEIC 2007
In fact the only winner with similar credentials was Indiannnie Star 2/5 who dropped from a class 3 race to win a class 6 race and WAS a FILLY and the race was in MAY.
All above were colts except Evanesce.
So Archers Road maybe a big negative today and you will note 3 losers,all odds on, at Leic in above list (two in this race).
Michael Bells runner seems well fancied and has disposed Archers Road as favourite.
Todays credentials indicate an overall 30% win strike rate but narrowed down to FTO runners 0 from 3. There are quite a few placings though and 2nd place today seems a good possibility.Thats only an assumption though based on the price and trainer record in class 5 mdns. His FTO record at Leic with 2yo's which is quite good and shows form figures in this particular race of WON 2ND WON.
The more I research the 2nd spot seems likely.
If the winner is neither of these two then it will be a decent price
Watch the betting for any movers is the advice and place bet on Farmer Giles
TRD
13.12pm
RESULT
Archers Road 1st 6/4 fav
Here and Why 2nd
Jack My boy 3rd
Farmer Giles unpl
OK it had to happen that Channon gets one to win. The form of Brocklesbury appears to be strong.
Loss on race £359.
Tips from other sources today
Farmer Giles unpl
Sayif 3.20
Wajaha 7.55
Loddington Stakes 3.20 LEIC
This race has been run as a Conditions event since 1993 but the race goes back earlier. The name of the event has been changed due to sponsorship
There have been 15 runnings as a conditions event race.
7 winners ran in group race as 2yo
All but 2 winners had only won 1 previous race.
The exceptions were in 1993 & 2006.
Both those exceptions won a claiming race in addition to their maiden but subsequently were placed in listed events.
14 of the 15 winners won their first race within their first 3 runs. The exception being Angus News 2006 who won his 4th race.
Only 4 of the 15 winners ran in a handicap race (1993 & 2006 were two of the handicap winners)
Also the two winners in 1993 & 2006 had the only double figure outings as 2yo (10 & 11 runs).
6 of the previous winners won first time out as 2yo.(4 of those ran later in group race)
Single run winners; Tajasur 4/9fav 2nd (1998) Pax and Polar Ben all failed to win but Patto (1994) won his only race as 3yo on AW in a 4 runner field. Quiet Elegance was a single run winner last year (but hasn't won since).
8 winners carried 9-0
1 carried 8-12
3 carried 8-9
1 carried 8-5
5 fillies won and 10 colts/geldings
Favourites 4 from 15 (2 odds on)
This is an update of previous years posts on this race.
Sayif is a group race runner but lacks a win.
Has never ran in mdn, only listed / Group races - finished 2nd in Group 1 & 2 races.
A class act that will be hard to beat.
UPDATE
Result
Sayif 1st 5/6 fav
Kempton tonight.
7.55pm
I have had a lay bet on the tip Wajaha at 1.87.
It has been heavily backed today.
With todays credentials on d/base there are a few negative signs.
TRD 17.50pm
2.10 LEIC
Mick Channon runs his Brocklesby 2nd (class 4)in this auction class 5 race after only 5 days. This race will test the Brocklesby form.
It is one of 3 fancied runners with Farmer Giles and Jack My Boy being the other two.
I posted a this a couple of years ago on prev blog. It has been updated.
Checking the stats for M Channon where a 2yo has run 2nd on first outing and subsequently ran in April.
All 5 fur races in 2yo maidens.
Rosmojusque 1994 unplaced 7/4
Final Spoof 1994 unplaced 9/4
Irish Fiction 1996 2nd 3/1
Wait For Rosie 1996 3rd 10/3
Mardoof 2002 3rd 1/2 (in this Leic race)
Evanesce 2004 2nd Evens
Jaasey 2005 unpl 7/4
Rouen 2006 unp Evens
Suhayl Star unpl Newby 2006 unp 7/2
Silver Guest 2nd 8/13 LEIC 2007
Legendary Guest unpl 1/2 LEIC 2007
In fact the only winner with similar credentials was Indiannnie Star 2/5 who dropped from a class 3 race to win a class 6 race and WAS a FILLY and the race was in MAY.
All above were colts except Evanesce.
So Archers Road maybe a big negative today and you will note 3 losers,all odds on, at Leic in above list (two in this race).
Michael Bells runner seems well fancied and has disposed Archers Road as favourite.
Todays credentials indicate an overall 30% win strike rate but narrowed down to FTO runners 0 from 3. There are quite a few placings though and 2nd place today seems a good possibility.Thats only an assumption though based on the price and trainer record in class 5 mdns. His FTO record at Leic with 2yo's which is quite good and shows form figures in this particular race of WON 2ND WON.
The more I research the 2nd spot seems likely.
If the winner is neither of these two then it will be a decent price
Watch the betting for any movers is the advice and place bet on Farmer Giles
TRD
13.12pm
RESULT
Archers Road 1st 6/4 fav
Here and Why 2nd
Jack My boy 3rd
Farmer Giles unpl
OK it had to happen that Channon gets one to win. The form of Brocklesbury appears to be strong.
Loss on race £359.
Tips from other sources today
Farmer Giles unpl
Sayif 3.20
Wajaha 7.55
Loddington Stakes 3.20 LEIC
This race has been run as a Conditions event since 1993 but the race goes back earlier. The name of the event has been changed due to sponsorship
There have been 15 runnings as a conditions event race.
7 winners ran in group race as 2yo
All but 2 winners had only won 1 previous race.
The exceptions were in 1993 & 2006.
Both those exceptions won a claiming race in addition to their maiden but subsequently were placed in listed events.
14 of the 15 winners won their first race within their first 3 runs. The exception being Angus News 2006 who won his 4th race.
Only 4 of the 15 winners ran in a handicap race (1993 & 2006 were two of the handicap winners)
Also the two winners in 1993 & 2006 had the only double figure outings as 2yo (10 & 11 runs).
6 of the previous winners won first time out as 2yo.(4 of those ran later in group race)
Single run winners; Tajasur 4/9fav 2nd (1998) Pax and Polar Ben all failed to win but Patto (1994) won his only race as 3yo on AW in a 4 runner field. Quiet Elegance was a single run winner last year (but hasn't won since).
8 winners carried 9-0
1 carried 8-12
3 carried 8-9
1 carried 8-5
5 fillies won and 10 colts/geldings
Favourites 4 from 15 (2 odds on)
This is an update of previous years posts on this race.
Sayif is a group race runner but lacks a win.
Has never ran in mdn, only listed / Group races - finished 2nd in Group 1 & 2 races.
A class act that will be hard to beat.
UPDATE
Result
Sayif 1st 5/6 fav
Kempton tonight.
7.55pm
I have had a lay bet on the tip Wajaha at 1.87.
It has been heavily backed today.
With todays credentials on d/base there are a few negative signs.
TRD 17.50pm
Wednesday, 1 April 2009
WEDNESDAY 1st April
2.30 LINGA
Secret Society was the word from Nmkt about working well and has a really good chance in this, according to my database.
Unfortunately B Hills runner Shabib also comes out just aswell and his record when odds on is 100% on AW under todays criteria.
Need to play about with the two at best prices.
Took 3.6 on BF early doors so at 3.4 currently there is a bit of leeway but the in running prices maybe better.
UPDATE
Secret Society 1st 9/2
Shabib 2nd 4/11 fav
Profit £1,357.25
Couldn't believe the drift price on winner (6/1) on BF
Backed and layed in running
Close finish though!!!
4.20 Catterick
Tiger Reigns comes out better than Agent Stone but limited data for both trainers in this type of race. The former currently 3.6 and Agent Stone 2.5 on BF. A small bet on Tiger is the value for me.
RESULT
Tiger Reigns 1st 15/8
Tips (other sources)
Secret Society (discussed above) WON 9/2
Fantastic Dubai (3yo hcps notoriously fifficult this time of year) 2nd 11/10 fav
Marajaa (not much reason to back this at 4.3 but has been as low as 3.0) WON 7/1
Still studying so may update later
TRD 12.30pm
5.20 Catterick
Lay bet (win) Supernoverre
TRD 14.06pm
RESULT Supernoverre Won 10/3
Summary
A really good day at the office with 2 winners
Unfortunately my 100% lay record went with Supernoverre.
The Tipster was also in good form today with 2 winners and the other just beaten on photo.
Bank Start £1,103.66
Bank End £2,357.00
Secret Society was the word from Nmkt about working well and has a really good chance in this, according to my database.
Unfortunately B Hills runner Shabib also comes out just aswell and his record when odds on is 100% on AW under todays criteria.
Need to play about with the two at best prices.
Took 3.6 on BF early doors so at 3.4 currently there is a bit of leeway but the in running prices maybe better.
UPDATE
Secret Society 1st 9/2
Shabib 2nd 4/11 fav
Profit £1,357.25
Couldn't believe the drift price on winner (6/1) on BF
Backed and layed in running
Close finish though!!!
4.20 Catterick
Tiger Reigns comes out better than Agent Stone but limited data for both trainers in this type of race. The former currently 3.6 and Agent Stone 2.5 on BF. A small bet on Tiger is the value for me.
RESULT
Tiger Reigns 1st 15/8
Tips (other sources)
Secret Society (discussed above) WON 9/2
Fantastic Dubai (3yo hcps notoriously fifficult this time of year) 2nd 11/10 fav
Marajaa (not much reason to back this at 4.3 but has been as low as 3.0) WON 7/1
Still studying so may update later
TRD 12.30pm
5.20 Catterick
Lay bet (win) Supernoverre
TRD 14.06pm
RESULT Supernoverre Won 10/3
Summary
A really good day at the office with 2 winners
Unfortunately my 100% lay record went with Supernoverre.
The Tipster was also in good form today with 2 winners and the other just beaten on photo.
Bank Start £1,103.66
Bank End £2,357.00
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