Pinza 05 Nov 13:02
A mares race at Haydock.
Pipe stable have a cracking record at Haydock but not much with mares races.
Swinbank does well with his previous winners in bumpers but checking the records most of those won FTO and todays runner didn't. Can only find one of his winners that didn't win FTO for comparison with todays race and that didn't win.
As I recall Sure Josie Sure was well thought of last year and ran over a shorter distance on first outing then up against the geldings/horses on her second outing. She runs against her own sex today so if she is that good then should win?
Nothing from the 3yo fillies race at Towcester
Thursday, 5 November 2009
Wednesday, 4 November 2009
NOTTINGHAM Nov 4th
Lot of discussion about Alexandros (Nott 2.15)
Suroor runs two again (often does in stakes races)
If there is a danger then it's the stable mate.
Alexandros has had a long break off track. Thats no problem as Suroor's strike rate in conditions races is above 50% with Lb runners and its 2 from 2 at this track in November months.
Have noticed that he has had a few of stable selected overturned by other runner in conds races.
Difficult beat Russian Revival Donc 1996
Desert Authority beat an even money shot Southwell 2006
Blue Ksar beat stable mate Newbury 2006
Fairmile beat Best Alibi York 2007
Hala Bek beat Fairmile (1/2fav) here at Notts 2008
It may not make much sense to knock a group 1 runner but they both started their careers in similar fashion, and a Bath class 3 conditions race win for Alexandros (in UK races) is just not great form to get too excited about.
The Young Pretender today
Suroor runs two again (often does in stakes races)
If there is a danger then it's the stable mate.
Alexandros has had a long break off track. Thats no problem as Suroor's strike rate in conditions races is above 50% with Lb runners and its 2 from 2 at this track in November months.
Have noticed that he has had a few of stable selected overturned by other runner in conds races.
Difficult beat Russian Revival Donc 1996
Desert Authority beat an even money shot Southwell 2006
Blue Ksar beat stable mate Newbury 2006
Fairmile beat Best Alibi York 2007
Hala Bek beat Fairmile (1/2fav) here at Notts 2008
It may not make much sense to knock a group 1 runner but they both started their careers in similar fashion, and a Bath class 3 conditions race win for Alexandros (in UK races) is just not great form to get too excited about.
The Young Pretender today
Tuesday, 3 November 2009
TIPSTER UPDATE
Original post September 2008
My pal who uses tipsters has had a good season.
He has stayed with the Nmkt tipster this year but also signed up with Edward Knight.
Nmkt was very poor early season due to virus in some stables.
It has made a reasonable profit though, especially on the "banker"bets.
I find Ed Knight very in and out. His record on flat racing is pretty poor this year.
The tips are sometomes for Irish racing which isn't of interest for me.
Last month my pal followed his mutiple bets and all 5 came in giving him a massive 16K profit on the day.
Generally his multple line tips are favs sprinkled with a couple of better priced ones.
Whether it's actual information or just form book, or ratings I am not sure. The strike rate is pretty decent but prices are low.
The Nmkt guy is pretty good and definitely has some "loose ties" to a few stables in the area. He also gets the odd decent priced winner from the smaller Nmkt stables.
When he goes out of Nmkt they rarely win but he does have info from one particular stable which has recently come up trumps.
My pal met up with the Nmkt guy recently at his office. Timeform and Raceform Update were in use and several form books on the shelves. It does seem to be a reasonable operation though based on the results.
At least we have confirmed that he is actually based at Nmkt and runs the business himself. As for Ed Knight - it is a contact address run from a car showroom in Nmkt and he is actually based Leeds / Wakefield area.
My pal who uses tipsters has had a good season.
He has stayed with the Nmkt tipster this year but also signed up with Edward Knight.
Nmkt was very poor early season due to virus in some stables.
It has made a reasonable profit though, especially on the "banker"bets.
I find Ed Knight very in and out. His record on flat racing is pretty poor this year.
The tips are sometomes for Irish racing which isn't of interest for me.
Last month my pal followed his mutiple bets and all 5 came in giving him a massive 16K profit on the day.
Generally his multple line tips are favs sprinkled with a couple of better priced ones.
Whether it's actual information or just form book, or ratings I am not sure. The strike rate is pretty decent but prices are low.
The Nmkt guy is pretty good and definitely has some "loose ties" to a few stables in the area. He also gets the odd decent priced winner from the smaller Nmkt stables.
When he goes out of Nmkt they rarely win but he does have info from one particular stable which has recently come up trumps.
My pal met up with the Nmkt guy recently at his office. Timeform and Raceform Update were in use and several form books on the shelves. It does seem to be a reasonable operation though based on the results.
At least we have confirmed that he is actually based at Nmkt and runs the business himself. As for Ed Knight - it is a contact address run from a car showroom in Nmkt and he is actually based Leeds / Wakefield area.
Saturday, 24 October 2009
SATURDAY 24th October 2009
2.20 Doncaster Coral Hcp 5f
Dandy Nicholls runs three here and he hasn't won this sprint race previously.
Parisian Pyramid is one of 10 runners in this that contested the York race.
That race has produced 3 previous winners of todays race.
Those 3 winners were all 3yo's (like PP)
All had either won or finished 2nd in their previous 6 races.(PP finished 2nd in one of the last six races)
All were in the weight range 8-7 to 8-12 and PP carries 8-8 today.
Joe Fanning got the feel for Parisian Pyramid when behind Cheveton but Adrian Nicholls was on Strike Up The Band who finished ahead of him in 4th.
Adrian rides the stable select today in Cape Vale who is quite consistent.(7-16 prev winners were consistent with at least 2 wins and and placed runs. Five of the 7 ran within 9 days like Cape Vale)
Judge n Jury attempts back to back wins in this.
Inherent Magic did it in 2003-4. and was 4yo & 5yo same as JnJ.
C&D winners have won 7 of the previous 16 runnings.
Top weights have won it twice (JnJ top wght last year)
JnJ is drawn 15 today and was drawn 16 last year. (same number of runners prior to withdrawals)
At least two previous winners failed in back to back runs
This race stats (16 yrs)
Normally a full season runner wins (15-16)
Ran in last 5 weeks (all)
Won or finished 2nd in last six races (12-16)
Of the 4 that did not win or finish 2nd, 3 were C&D winners.
C&D winners (7-16) especially older runners 5yo plus.
REVIEW
Not a race to get too involved with
Parisian Pyramid finished 5th
Dandy Nicholls runs three here and he hasn't won this sprint race previously.
Parisian Pyramid is one of 10 runners in this that contested the York race.
That race has produced 3 previous winners of todays race.
Those 3 winners were all 3yo's (like PP)
All had either won or finished 2nd in their previous 6 races.(PP finished 2nd in one of the last six races)
All were in the weight range 8-7 to 8-12 and PP carries 8-8 today.
Joe Fanning got the feel for Parisian Pyramid when behind Cheveton but Adrian Nicholls was on Strike Up The Band who finished ahead of him in 4th.
Adrian rides the stable select today in Cape Vale who is quite consistent.(7-16 prev winners were consistent with at least 2 wins and and placed runs. Five of the 7 ran within 9 days like Cape Vale)
Judge n Jury attempts back to back wins in this.
Inherent Magic did it in 2003-4. and was 4yo & 5yo same as JnJ.
C&D winners have won 7 of the previous 16 runnings.
Top weights have won it twice (JnJ top wght last year)
JnJ is drawn 15 today and was drawn 16 last year. (same number of runners prior to withdrawals)
At least two previous winners failed in back to back runs
This race stats (16 yrs)
Normally a full season runner wins (15-16)
Ran in last 5 weeks (all)
Won or finished 2nd in last six races (12-16)
Of the 4 that did not win or finish 2nd, 3 were C&D winners.
C&D winners (7-16) especially older runners 5yo plus.
REVIEW
Not a race to get too involved with
Parisian Pyramid finished 5th
Friday, 23 October 2009
DONCASTER OCTOBER
RACING POST TROPHY 8f Group 1 for 2yo's
Key Factors.
Won on first or second run (25-27 two exceptions who were placed on only run)
If ran in Listed Race then won it.(8-8)
If ran Mids North or Scotland then won, or placed in Group race (8won 2grp placed)
No previous winner in last 27 years was out of frame more than once.
Only six meet the "out of the frame category" and three were on first run and three were in Group race.
Crowded House (2008) was only winner to run in a sales event (544K) or on AW track (won).
This year sees more dual win runners (form 11)than previous years.
No race in last 27 years has seen more than two runners with similar form.
A total of nine runners have come to Doncaster with 11 form figures and only two have won. (Peter Davies and Celtic Swing)
The interesting fact is that those two winners won 7f listed or B condition races following their maiden wins over same distance.
This years runners with 11 form
Al Zir (7f wins at Nmkt mdn and Donc B conds)
Elusive Award (7f wins at Leop mdn and Dundalk conds)
Elusive Pimpernel (7f wins at Nmkt mdn and York group3)
St Nicholas Abbey (8f wins at Curragh mdn & group2)
St Nicholas is the favourite and clearly has a chance with the group 2 win.
Same trainer has run
Brian Boru achieved his win with lesser qualifications- Group 3 8f
2nd and 7f maiden win both at Curragh.
Septimus Group 2 8f win Curragh and 7f mdn win only finished 3rd 5/6fav 2005
Castle Gandolfo 8/13fav who won 8f Gr 3 at Curragh after 6f mdn also failed in 2001.
Lermontov 2nd in 1999 also won Curragh 8f gr3 after 7f mdn.
Of the other runners
Al Ghazal - interesting as won over 10f and will surely stay. Cannot find a runner that ran over 10f (back to 1990) and certainly no winners in last 27 yrs ran at that dist.
Big Audio - failed to win on first two runs and with two listed wins - is probably his class.
Coordinated Cat - Single CD win but at least 5 CD winners have failed and only 1 course win in last 27 yrs.
Dancing David - Two previous winners came here after Newbury win but those were in B conds races and David won a mdn there.
Hanson D - The Flintshire MP is unlikely to win based on the failure to win a northern mdn.
Morana - Definitely on the short list despite failing to win in first two runs. The drop from 8f to 7f for second run (very unusual) may have gone against him but to win a Group 3 as his maiden makes him interesting.
Mussaafer - The AW run when 2nd is against this one.
Shakespearean - Probably the form horse in the race. Won sales race worth 956k which is much more than the prize money for this Group 1 race!!!
If it wasn't for his failure in listed event on second run he would figure as a bet.
Finally
Difficult to pinpoint the winner and may consider St Nicholas to be a lay bet on the record of O'Briens previous dual win runners Septimus,Castle Gandolfo and Lermontov.
Al Zir with two wins over 7f and a course win and Elusive Pimpernel make most appeal. Both had their first run at Nmkt, a course which figures highly in the stats.
REVIEW
St Nicholas won it easy and despite the two selections finishing 2nd & 3rd the race was a loss for me.
Key Factors.
Won on first or second run (25-27 two exceptions who were placed on only run)
If ran in Listed Race then won it.(8-8)
If ran Mids North or Scotland then won, or placed in Group race (8won 2grp placed)
No previous winner in last 27 years was out of frame more than once.
Only six meet the "out of the frame category" and three were on first run and three were in Group race.
Crowded House (2008) was only winner to run in a sales event (544K) or on AW track (won).
This year sees more dual win runners (form 11)than previous years.
No race in last 27 years has seen more than two runners with similar form.
A total of nine runners have come to Doncaster with 11 form figures and only two have won. (Peter Davies and Celtic Swing)
The interesting fact is that those two winners won 7f listed or B condition races following their maiden wins over same distance.
This years runners with 11 form
Al Zir (7f wins at Nmkt mdn and Donc B conds)
Elusive Award (7f wins at Leop mdn and Dundalk conds)
Elusive Pimpernel (7f wins at Nmkt mdn and York group3)
St Nicholas Abbey (8f wins at Curragh mdn & group2)
St Nicholas is the favourite and clearly has a chance with the group 2 win.
Same trainer has run
Brian Boru achieved his win with lesser qualifications- Group 3 8f
2nd and 7f maiden win both at Curragh.
Septimus Group 2 8f win Curragh and 7f mdn win only finished 3rd 5/6fav 2005
Castle Gandolfo 8/13fav who won 8f Gr 3 at Curragh after 6f mdn also failed in 2001.
Lermontov 2nd in 1999 also won Curragh 8f gr3 after 7f mdn.
Of the other runners
Al Ghazal - interesting as won over 10f and will surely stay. Cannot find a runner that ran over 10f (back to 1990) and certainly no winners in last 27 yrs ran at that dist.
Big Audio - failed to win on first two runs and with two listed wins - is probably his class.
Coordinated Cat - Single CD win but at least 5 CD winners have failed and only 1 course win in last 27 yrs.
Dancing David - Two previous winners came here after Newbury win but those were in B conds races and David won a mdn there.
Hanson D - The Flintshire MP is unlikely to win based on the failure to win a northern mdn.
Morana - Definitely on the short list despite failing to win in first two runs. The drop from 8f to 7f for second run (very unusual) may have gone against him but to win a Group 3 as his maiden makes him interesting.
Mussaafer - The AW run when 2nd is against this one.
Shakespearean - Probably the form horse in the race. Won sales race worth 956k which is much more than the prize money for this Group 1 race!!!
If it wasn't for his failure in listed event on second run he would figure as a bet.
Finally
Difficult to pinpoint the winner and may consider St Nicholas to be a lay bet on the record of O'Briens previous dual win runners Septimus,Castle Gandolfo and Lermontov.
Al Zir with two wins over 7f and a course win and Elusive Pimpernel make most appeal. Both had their first run at Nmkt, a course which figures highly in the stats.
REVIEW
St Nicholas won it easy and despite the two selections finishing 2nd & 3rd the race was a loss for me.
Wednesday, 6 May 2009
3.15 CHESTER 5f Hcp Weds
The draw plays an important part in this race.
If the draw is Good or softer then the highest winning draw was 7.
The qualifiers in todays race which now has 12 runners due to 3 withdrawals.
Good Gorson is eliminated as 4yo’s have a poor record in this race. (unless CD winner and/or won current season)
Horse Age Weight Dist Days LTO Track grade Spd SH SH
Strike
up the Band6 Top D 28 4 Nott C 1 F -
Sohraab 5 High D 19 2 Newb B 3 SF SF
Carcinetto7 High D 8 0 South Claim 4 - -
Angus Newz6 Bottom D C 9 6 Bath A 5 - -
Northern Dare5 Bottom D 8 4 Wolv D - -
Top weights have won 5 previous runnings
Bottom weights 4
High 3
Bath run last time has produced 2 wins
Newb 4
Nott 1
The main selection is Sohraab based upon factors;
Only winner that ran 2nd on previous outing was in same race.
That race has produced 4 winners.
The stable info today has produced the results 2nd W W 0 2nd
Fonthill Road was just btn by Nicholls runner in photo.
Janannpee was beaten a length by the favourite.
Also noting Sohraab’s form it is noticed that no wins on Good or softer going.
Todays going is described as Good with Good to Firm in places.
It would be wise to back savers accordingly from the list as Fire Up the Band (16/1)
Who beat Fonthill Road was also in the list the only previous time this has been
Researched. David Nicholls has 3 runners today (as usual) and two are in the list.
4.00 Stats show that top weights that won last time out do not win this (Kings Destiny).
Distance winners that have won two career races do. Fortuni would have also fitted but has
Been withdrawn but trainer Prescott still has Braveheart in the race. The only winner that hadn’t
Run in current season was Swiss Act in 2007.
HEADLINE ACT is selected
4.35.
Stats show that 7 or 8 fur runs last time out win two thirds of the past races as opposed to 10f which won the remainder.
Also there hasn't been a reversal of form so Harbinger should beat Beauchamp Xerxes again (8f race)
and likewise Calypso Bay should beat Devotion to Duty (10f race).
The previous winners have all either been Nmkt or Manton trained.
Stoute has won this with a runner that finished 3rd in the race that Harbinger was 2nd.
As Harbinger is aimed at Dante - Derby then this should be his race and the forecast maybe a possibility.
The draw plays an important part in this race.
If the draw is Good or softer then the highest winning draw was 7.
The qualifiers in todays race which now has 12 runners due to 3 withdrawals.
Good Gorson is eliminated as 4yo’s have a poor record in this race. (unless CD winner and/or won current season)
Horse Age Weight Dist Days LTO Track grade Spd SH SH
Strike
up the Band6 Top D 28 4 Nott C 1 F -
Sohraab 5 High D 19 2 Newb B 3 SF SF
Carcinetto7 High D 8 0 South Claim 4 - -
Angus Newz6 Bottom D C 9 6 Bath A 5 - -
Northern Dare5 Bottom D 8 4 Wolv D - -
Top weights have won 5 previous runnings
Bottom weights 4
High 3
Bath run last time has produced 2 wins
Newb 4
Nott 1
The main selection is Sohraab based upon factors;
Only winner that ran 2nd on previous outing was in same race.
That race has produced 4 winners.
The stable info today has produced the results 2nd W W 0 2nd
Fonthill Road was just btn by Nicholls runner in photo.
Janannpee was beaten a length by the favourite.
Also noting Sohraab’s form it is noticed that no wins on Good or softer going.
Todays going is described as Good with Good to Firm in places.
It would be wise to back savers accordingly from the list as Fire Up the Band (16/1)
Who beat Fonthill Road was also in the list the only previous time this has been
Researched. David Nicholls has 3 runners today (as usual) and two are in the list.
4.00 Stats show that top weights that won last time out do not win this (Kings Destiny).
Distance winners that have won two career races do. Fortuni would have also fitted but has
Been withdrawn but trainer Prescott still has Braveheart in the race. The only winner that hadn’t
Run in current season was Swiss Act in 2007.
HEADLINE ACT is selected
4.35.
Stats show that 7 or 8 fur runs last time out win two thirds of the past races as opposed to 10f which won the remainder.
Also there hasn't been a reversal of form so Harbinger should beat Beauchamp Xerxes again (8f race)
and likewise Calypso Bay should beat Devotion to Duty (10f race).
The previous winners have all either been Nmkt or Manton trained.
Stoute has won this with a runner that finished 3rd in the race that Harbinger was 2nd.
As Harbinger is aimed at Dante - Derby then this should be his race and the forecast maybe a possibility.
Tuesday, 5 May 2009
CHESTER LILY AGNES
Generally this race is often won by a single run winner (14-31)
Two occasions a double winner has won resulting in 16-31 going unbeaten to post.
Taking the unbeaten winners out of the scenario we are left with 12 winners who had won a race (including 4 who won two races) and only two of those ran unplaced in a race - both on first run.The four winners that bucked the trends were
What Fun - 3rd on only outing (This was a weaker race with 4 unraced of the 7 runners.
Digital Image - first time out
Cracking - unplaced first run and won (The year Vhujon was withdrawn)
Doncaster Rover -2nd on only run. (all the other 6 runners were fillies)
Richard Hannon has won this race on 6 occasions from 10 attempts.
The Berry stable (Jack and now Alan) have won 6 races also.
The Brocklesby runners
1985 Runaway WON.
2001 Shifting Kid 2nd (photo)and Magic Trick 3rd.
2002 The Lord WON
2003 Dance Night WON and Mitchelland 4th
2008 Doncaster Rover WON
The DRAW. (winners draw on varying going)
Soft 1 1 1 1
G/Soft 2 1 1 1 1
Good 3 2 1 2 2 2 1 2
G/Firm 1 5 8 3 6 1 3 5 5 8 3 5 2
Firm no races.
This years runners and previous stats back to 1977
Star Rover
Trainer David Evans has had eight attempts at this race and has a 2nd place to show for his efforts. In 2007 his runner Vhujon was withdrawn on day of the race when favourite and probable winner.
Star Rover has won all three of his races.
No previous runner since 1977 has won three races prior to this race so we are in unknown territory this year.
The most wins prior to this race is two and a total of twelve runners have come into eight previous Lily Agnes races (duplicates on four occasions)resulting in 3 wins.
Unbeaten two win runners amount to four and only one won.
Top weights who carried over 9stone won three of the eight qualfying races.
David Evans ran two in the race last year, both unbeaten and the one who had won its both races and was top weight with 8-13 started at 4/5 fav and finished 4th.
The questions against are the weight and the draw (5) and trainer record
The positive - unbeaten
Archers Road
Mick Channon hasn't had a runner since 2002. His three runners who contested this all appeared to have live chances. 1998 Golden Silca (form 1) backed from 3/1 into 9/4 second favourite and finished 2nd.She went onto win four races including two Group 2 races that year. 1999 Barringer (form 2121) 5/4 fav unplaced.
2002 Polar Force (form 1) 5/1 out to 6/1 unplaced.
His runner this year contested the Brocklesby finishing 2nd.
Questions. Newcastle and Leicester where the wins occurred do not feature in past winners. The draw (7)
Positives. Runners who had always finished in first two in their previous three or more races have won 2 from 7 qualifiers.
The Brocklesby record in this.
Duke of Rainford
One run last of 12 at Nottingham.
Appears to be the trainers first runner in this race.
Question. Everything including the draw (8)
Positive. Dwelt and hampered and backed from 10/1 to 11/2 on only run.
Fratellino
Over 4 lengths behind Archers Road at Ascot last time.
Questions. Upped in class from last when RPost said needed a drop in class.
Positives. Led last time and could possibly lead the race if gets a good start from 4
Goodbye Earl.
100-1 in only race hampered and gradually weakened in only race
Question. Everything except the draw.Appears held by My Mandy.
Positives. The draw and stable record in race.
Kings of Leo
This filly came out at Windsor (3/1 fav) and faded after chasing leader.
She won at Warwick on BH Monday.
Questions. The quick outing of only two days.The draw.
Positives. Trainer record in this race. Three of his winners had their first run at Windsor.
Mijas Playa.
Good run when 2nd in a decent race at Nmkt.Tricky Note (1987) came from same race.
Appears to have a couple of pounds in hand over Kings of Leo through a line with Six Wives and more on a line with Azif. Trainer won this 1996.
Questions. Runners who were 2nd on only run have produced 1 win and 3 seconds from 8 qualifiers. The fillies ratio is one second and three unplaced - including Kilcora 1997 who also ran her race at Nmkt.
Positives. Daryll Holland rides her again. Alan Bailey who trained winner that beat Mijas loves Chester and intimated that the winner would run in this race. The draw
(3) based on weakness of lower drawn runners.
My Mandy
Three runs without a win and Pattersea Girl overturned form of first run when they met. Raced alone when decent 2nd at Haydock. If she does that here, from stall 9, she will cover a furlong more.
Questions. No previous winner has had two or three placed runs.The draw.
Positives. Will be company in horse box for Duke of Rainford.
Tom Folan
I have lost count of the number of times this one has been withdrawn from races recently. At least two I can recall. Appears held by Fratellino and Mick Channon should know where he stands through form lines.
Questions. Whether it will run or be withdrawn.
Positive. Good draw.
Two occasions a double winner has won resulting in 16-31 going unbeaten to post.
Taking the unbeaten winners out of the scenario we are left with 12 winners who had won a race (including 4 who won two races) and only two of those ran unplaced in a race - both on first run.The four winners that bucked the trends were
What Fun - 3rd on only outing (This was a weaker race with 4 unraced of the 7 runners.
Digital Image - first time out
Cracking - unplaced first run and won (The year Vhujon was withdrawn)
Doncaster Rover -2nd on only run. (all the other 6 runners were fillies)
Richard Hannon has won this race on 6 occasions from 10 attempts.
The Berry stable (Jack and now Alan) have won 6 races also.
The Brocklesby runners
1985 Runaway WON.
2001 Shifting Kid 2nd (photo)and Magic Trick 3rd.
2002 The Lord WON
2003 Dance Night WON and Mitchelland 4th
2008 Doncaster Rover WON
The DRAW. (winners draw on varying going)
Soft 1 1 1 1
G/Soft 2 1 1 1 1
Good 3 2 1 2 2 2 1 2
G/Firm 1 5 8 3 6 1 3 5 5 8 3 5 2
Firm no races.
This years runners and previous stats back to 1977
Star Rover
Trainer David Evans has had eight attempts at this race and has a 2nd place to show for his efforts. In 2007 his runner Vhujon was withdrawn on day of the race when favourite and probable winner.
Star Rover has won all three of his races.
No previous runner since 1977 has won three races prior to this race so we are in unknown territory this year.
The most wins prior to this race is two and a total of twelve runners have come into eight previous Lily Agnes races (duplicates on four occasions)resulting in 3 wins.
Unbeaten two win runners amount to four and only one won.
Top weights who carried over 9stone won three of the eight qualfying races.
David Evans ran two in the race last year, both unbeaten and the one who had won its both races and was top weight with 8-13 started at 4/5 fav and finished 4th.
The questions against are the weight and the draw (5) and trainer record
The positive - unbeaten
Archers Road
Mick Channon hasn't had a runner since 2002. His three runners who contested this all appeared to have live chances. 1998 Golden Silca (form 1) backed from 3/1 into 9/4 second favourite and finished 2nd.She went onto win four races including two Group 2 races that year. 1999 Barringer (form 2121) 5/4 fav unplaced.
2002 Polar Force (form 1) 5/1 out to 6/1 unplaced.
His runner this year contested the Brocklesby finishing 2nd.
Questions. Newcastle and Leicester where the wins occurred do not feature in past winners. The draw (7)
Positives. Runners who had always finished in first two in their previous three or more races have won 2 from 7 qualifiers.
The Brocklesby record in this.
Duke of Rainford
One run last of 12 at Nottingham.
Appears to be the trainers first runner in this race.
Question. Everything including the draw (8)
Positive. Dwelt and hampered and backed from 10/1 to 11/2 on only run.
Fratellino
Over 4 lengths behind Archers Road at Ascot last time.
Questions. Upped in class from last when RPost said needed a drop in class.
Positives. Led last time and could possibly lead the race if gets a good start from 4
Goodbye Earl.
100-1 in only race hampered and gradually weakened in only race
Question. Everything except the draw.Appears held by My Mandy.
Positives. The draw and stable record in race.
Kings of Leo
This filly came out at Windsor (3/1 fav) and faded after chasing leader.
She won at Warwick on BH Monday.
Questions. The quick outing of only two days.The draw.
Positives. Trainer record in this race. Three of his winners had their first run at Windsor.
Mijas Playa.
Good run when 2nd in a decent race at Nmkt.Tricky Note (1987) came from same race.
Appears to have a couple of pounds in hand over Kings of Leo through a line with Six Wives and more on a line with Azif. Trainer won this 1996.
Questions. Runners who were 2nd on only run have produced 1 win and 3 seconds from 8 qualifiers. The fillies ratio is one second and three unplaced - including Kilcora 1997 who also ran her race at Nmkt.
Positives. Daryll Holland rides her again. Alan Bailey who trained winner that beat Mijas loves Chester and intimated that the winner would run in this race. The draw
(3) based on weakness of lower drawn runners.
My Mandy
Three runs without a win and Pattersea Girl overturned form of first run when they met. Raced alone when decent 2nd at Haydock. If she does that here, from stall 9, she will cover a furlong more.
Questions. No previous winner has had two or three placed runs.The draw.
Positives. Will be company in horse box for Duke of Rainford.
Tom Folan
I have lost count of the number of times this one has been withdrawn from races recently. At least two I can recall. Appears held by Fratellino and Mick Channon should know where he stands through form lines.
Questions. Whether it will run or be withdrawn.
Positive. Good draw.
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